Published picks
Today’s board
2 picks published from 26,864 props scanned · games Oct 29–31. Each one shows its last 15 games against the line, and every one is graded in public below.
Paper-traded record
Every graded pickGraded Apr 5–Oct 27, 2026. The hit rate is judged against 62.4%, the average break-even of the graded picks: goblins need 66.7%, standards 57.7%, demons 44.7%. Demons are recorded separately: 82W–79L, 50.9% against their 44.7% break-even.
On Oct 2, 2026 we corrected the record after a grading bug: 5 picks that had been voided are now graded: 4 wins, 1 loss. Their stat could not be read from the box score when they were voided; it can now, so each is graded on its game.
On Oct 2, 2026 we corrected the record after a grading bug: 23 picks that had been voided are now graded: 11 wins, 12 losses. They were filed under the wrong date or a team code the schedule did not recognise, or had a stat the grader could not read yet; each is now graded against the game it was made for.
Published picks
Final
10graded from the box score · demons count on their own line, apart from the record
Track record
Every published pick is paper-traded and graded automatically from box scores, wins and losses both. The P&L is a Kelly-sized simulation on paper stakes; no money is wagered.
By sport
tick = its break-even| Sport | W–L | Hit rate | Against break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 110–91 | 54.7% | break-even 61.0% |
| MLB | 74–33 | 69.2% | break-even 65.0% |
| NHL | 30–17 | 63.8% | break-even 60.4% |
| NFL | 13–1 | 92.9% | break-even 66.0% |
| WNBA | 6–6 | 50.0% | break-even 66.7% |
| All | 233–148 | 61.2% | break-even 62.4% |
Did our percentages come true?
We said 71.2% on average; picks hit 61.2% (381 graded, Apr 5–Oct 27, 2026). When we said 65–70%, picks hit 45% (75 picks).
Today’s percentages pass through a correction fit on these same picks. Only 1 pick has graded since, too few to test it on new games.
The numbers behind the chart
| We said | Picks | Avg said | Hit | 90% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60–65% | 36 | 63.0% | 63.9% | 50–76% |
| 65–70% | 75 | 68.0% | 45.3% | 36–55% |
| 70–75% | 221 | 72.3% | 64.3% | 59–69% |
| 75–95% | 49 | 77.2% | 69.4% | 58–79% |
Scored against always guessing the base rate: ours 0.247, constant 0.238. Lower is better.
Sitting out: CFB Rush Yards OVER, CFB Receiving Yards OVER, MLB Hitter Fantasy Score OVER, NFL Receiving Yards OVER, WNBA Points OVER, MLB Hitter Strikeouts OVER, NBA Pts+Asts UNDER, NBA Pts+Asts OVER, NBA Pts+Rebs+Asts UNDER, NBA Pts+Rebs UNDER, MLB Total Bases OVER, CFB Receptions OVER, MLB Pitcher Strikeouts OVER, WNBA Rebounds OVER and CFB Anytime TDs OVER. Our graded record in these is below the bar we set to publish.
Why each one
- CFB Rush Yards OVER Our graded CFB Rush Yards OVER demons went 2–4 over the last 30 days.
- CFB Receiving Yards OVER Our graded CFB Receiving Yards OVER demons went 3–6 over the last 30 days.
- MLB Hitter Fantasy Score OVER Our graded MLB Hitter Fantasy Score OVER goblins went 3–4 over the last 30 days.
- NFL Receiving Yards OVER Our graded NFL Receiving Yards OVER demons went 4–5 over the last 30 days.
- WNBA Points OVER Our graded WNBA Points OVER goblins went 3–3 over the last 30 days.
- MLB Hitter Strikeouts OVER Our graded MLB Hitter Strikeouts OVER goblins went 5–2 over the last 30 days.
- NBA Pts+Asts UNDER Our last 7 graded NBA Pts+Asts UNDER picks went 1–6.
- NBA Pts+Asts OVER Our last 6 graded NBA Pts+Asts OVER picks went 1–5.
- NBA Pts+Rebs+Asts UNDER Our last 12 graded NBA Pts+Rebs+Asts UNDER picks went 4–8.
- NBA Pts+Rebs UNDER Our last 12 graded NBA Pts+Rebs UNDER picks went 3–9.
- MLB Total Bases OVER Our last 4 graded MLB Total Bases OVER picks went 1–3.
- CFB Receptions OVER Our last 6 graded CFB Receptions OVER picks went 2–4.
- MLB Pitcher Strikeouts OVER Our last 8 graded MLB Pitcher Strikeouts OVER picks went 2–6.
- WNBA Rebounds OVER Our last 3 graded WNBA Rebounds OVER picks went 0–3.
- CFB Anytime TDs OVER Our last 4 graded CFB Anytime TDs OVER picks went 1–3.
Last 30 graded
all sports · newest first| Date | Result | Player | Pick | Actual | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miss | Isaiah CollierNBA | points OVER 9.5 | 7 | −2.5 | |
| Miss | Jackson ChourioMLB | rbis OVER 0.5 | 0 | −0.5 | |
| Hit | Tre JonesNBA | points OVER 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 | |
| Hit | Herbert JonesNBA | turnovers OVER 0.5 | 1 | +0.5 | |
| Hit | Jeremiah FearsNBA | two pointers attempted OVER 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 | |
| Hit | Antonio Martin Jr.CFB | rush yards OVER 39.5 | 106 | +66.5 | |
| Miss | Anfernee SimonsNBA | two pointers made OVER 1.5 | 1 | −0.5 | |
| Hit | Tim HardawayNBA | two pointers attempted OVER 1.5 | 7 | +5.5 | |
| Miss | Bub CarringtonNBA | two pointers attempted OVER 2.5 | 0 | −2.5 | |
| Hit | Bilal CoulibalyNBA | points OVER 8.5 | 17 | +8.5 | |
| Hit | Chandler SimpsonMLB | hitter fantasy score OVER 2.5 | 13 | +10.5 | |
| Miss | William ContrerasMLB | hitter fantasy score OVER 2.5 | 2 | −0.5 | |
| Hit | Jake BauersMLB | hitter strikeouts OVER 0.5 | 1 | +0.5 | |
| Miss | Jackson ChourioMLB | rbis OVER 0.5 | 0 | −0.5 | |
| Hit | Brice SensabaughNBA | points OVER 7.5 | 11 | +3.5 | |
| Hit | Ty JeromeNBA | assists OVER 2.5 | 8 | +5.5 | |
| Miss | Lauri MarkkanenNBA | rebounds OVER 2.5 | 0 | −2.5 | |
| Miss | Isaiah CollierNBA | points OVER 7.5 | 7 | −0.5 | |
| Hit | Dak PrescottNFL | pass yards OVER 74.5 | 212 | +137.5 | |
| Hit | Javonte WilliamsNFL | rush yards OVER 19.5 | 155 | +135.5 | |
| Hit | Kevin DurantNBA | rebounds OVER 1.5 | 9 | +7.5 | |
| Hit | Amen ThompsonNBA | rebounds OVER 2.5 | 5 | +2.5 | |
| Hit | Jake BauersMLB | hitter strikeouts OVER 0.5 | 1 | +0.5 | |
| Hit | Brice TurangMLB | hitter fantasy score OVER 2.5 | 17 | +14.5 | |
| Miss | Junior CamineroMLB | hitter fantasy score OVER 2.5 | 0 | −2.5 | |
| Miss | AJ GreenNBA | fg made OVER 2.5 | 1 | −1.5 | |
| Hit | Pascal SiakamNBA | rebounds OVER 2.5 | 13 | +10.5 | |
| Hit | Veronica BurtonWNBA | assists OVER 2.5 | 3 | +0.5 | |
| Hit | Tre JonesNBA | free throws attempted OVER 2.5 | 8 | +5.5 | |
| Hit | Bobby PortisNBA | free throws made OVER 0.5 | 1 | +0.5 |