Real BetisvsMálaga CF
Sat, Oct 31 · 10:30 AM PT · kicks off in 21h
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 14,994 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | 75% | 72.4% | +2.6 pts | 1.30 3/10 | 76.9% |
| Draw | 15% | 17.1% | −2.1 pts | 5.50 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Málaga | 10% | 10.5% | −0.5 pts | 9.00 8/1 | 11.1% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 106.2%, so this book’s margin is 6.2%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.07 | 93.3% |
| X2 | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| 12 | 1.14 | 87.5% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 1.73 | 57.9% |
| X | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| 2 | 7.50 | 13.3% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.08 | 92.3% |
| 2 | 8.00 | 12.5% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| No | 1.95 | 51.3% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 97.6% |
| Under | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.14 | 87.5% |
| Under | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Under | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Under | 1.67 | 60.0% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Real Betis goals by Málaga goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Real Betis 6 wins · 0 draws · Málaga 4 wins.
- Málaga3–1Real Betis
- Real Betis2–1Málaga
- Málaga0–2Real Betis
- Málaga1–2Real Betis
- Real Betis1–0Málaga
- Real Betis0–1Málaga
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- MálagaBoth teams scoring5/7
- Real BetisFirst to score5/7
- BothLess than 10.5 corners4/5
When these two meet
- MálagaWithout clean sheet5
- BothMore than 4.5 cards7/8
Fan poll: both teams to score?
2,117 votes (third-party poll): yes 66%, no 34%.
Outside model notes
Real Betis are the clear favourites. They sit 4th with 20 points, while Málaga CF are 20th with 5 points and still without a league win. Betis rank 1st for clean sheets and 6th for big chances created, while Málaga rank 19th for big chances created. The model gives the home side a 75% win probability.
The outside model makes Real Betis a 75% favourite, with a draw at 15% and a Málaga CF win at 10%. Both teams to score is rated at 50%. The most likely scorelines are Real Betis 2-0 Málaga CF (12.1%), Real Betis 3-0 Málaga CF (10.1%) and Real Betis 2-1 Málaga CF (9.6%).
Isco is Betis's main threat: he has 4 goals and an average rating of 7.83 in his last 5 matches, and he has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances against Málaga. Abdessamad Ezzalzouli has also scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches. Betis are without Cucho Hernández (injured). Málaga CF are missing several midfielders, including Joaquín Muñoz and Pablo Martínez (both injured), plus defender Diego Murillo and forward Julen Lobete (injured).
Málaga CF won the most recent meeting in 2025, while Real Betis won the previous one in 2018. Both of those matches had goals for both teams. Málaga CF have not kept a clean sheet in any of the last 5 head-to-head meetings, and more than 4.5 cards have been shown in 7 of the last 8.
Real Betis have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 matches in the data, including a home win over Feyenoord. They score most often in the 31-45 minute period (43.8% of their goals) and concede most in the 46-60 period (28.6%). Málaga CF have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 in all competitions, but they remain without a league win. Their goals are split between the 31-45 and 76-90 periods (28.6% each), and both teams have scored in 5 of their last 7 matches.
Real Betis have the league's best clean-sheet record (5, rank 1) and rank 6th for possession (51.7%) and big chances created (25). They also rank 1st for fast breaks per game (2.8) and 2nd for ground duels won (54.9%), but rank 14th for big chances missed (14). Málaga CF rank 19th for big chances created (9) and 18th for aerial duels won (44.8%), with only 1 clean sheet (rank 15). They average 5.2 corners per game (rank 8) and 2.4 yellow cards per game.
Real Betis are 4th with 20 points, while Málaga CF are 20th with 5 points and without a league win this season. Betis can keep pace with the top four; Málaga need points to close the gap at the bottom. The match is at Estadio de la Cartuja in Seville.
The referee is not named in the available data. Real Betis average 1.6 yellow cards per game and Málaga CF average 2.4. Head-to-head meetings have produced more than 4.5 cards in 7 of 8, and both teams have seen fewer than 10.5 corners in 4 of their last 5.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
