TroyesvsLe Mans
Sat, Oct 31 · 12:45 PM PT · Referee Azzedine Souifi
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 1,377 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes | 45% | 40.0% | +5.0 pts | 2.38 69/50 | 42.0% |
| Draw | 27% | 27.2% | −0.2 pts | 3.50 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Le Mans | 28% | 32.8% | −4.8 pts | 2.90 19/10 | 34.5% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.1%, so this book’s margin is 5.1%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| X2 | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| 12 | 1.29 | 77.8% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.88 | 34.8% |
| X | 2.25 | 44.4% |
| 2 | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| 2 | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| No | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.04 | 96.2% |
| Under | 12.00 | 8.3% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| Under | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Under | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| Under | 1.40 | 71.4% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Troyes goals by Le Mans goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Troyes 2 wins · 3 draws · Le Mans 5 wins.
- Troyes0–2Le Mans
- Le Mans2–2Troyes
- Troyes2–1Le Mans
- Troyes2–1Le Mans
- Le Mans1–1Troyes
- Troyes0–1Le Mans
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- TroyesNo wins7
- Le MansNo wins4
- Le MansWithout clean sheet11
- Le MansMore than 2.5 goals6/7
- Le MansBoth teams scoring9/10
- TroyesFirst to concede5/6
- TroyesFirst half loser5/7
- Le MansLess than 4.5 cards5/5
- TroyesLess than 10.5 corners4/5
- Le MansLess than 10.5 corners5/6
When these two meet
- TroyesWithout clean sheet11
- BothBoth teams scoring4/5
Fan poll: both teams to score?
297 votes (third-party poll): yes 88%, no 12%.
Outside model notes
Troyes host Le Mans at the Stade de l'Aube with both clubs in the bottom four. Troyes are 17th on 5 points (1 win, 2 draws, 5 losses) and Le Mans are 15th on 7 points (1 win, 4 draws, 3 losses). The outside model makes Troyes favourites at 45%, with a draw at 27% and a Le Mans win at 28%, and it rates both teams to score at 56%.
Troyes are without a win in 7 matches and have taken 2 points from their last 5 (0-0 at Toulouse, 1-3 vs RC Lens, 0-2 vs Olympique de Marseille, 2-2 at Dijon, 0-2 at Angers). They have scored 5 goals all season, the lowest total in the league, from 9.76 expected goals. They have conceded first in 5 of their last 6 and were losing at half-time in 5 of 7.
Le Mans have drawn 4 and lost 3 of 8 and are without a win in 4 (1-1 at Auxerre, 0-3 vs Toulouse, 1-3 at Paris Saint-Germain, 1-2 at Guingamp, 3-1 vs Nantes). They have not kept a clean sheet in 11 matches and both teams have scored in 9 of their last 10. Their 11 goals scored is more than double the Troyes total.
Troyes average 38.9% possession, the lowest in the league, and 6.5 corners per game, the highest. Le Mans average 44.1% possession, 2.5 corners per game and win only 40.9% of aerial duels, the second-lowest rate in the division. Le Mans have committed 116 fouls (third most) and collected 18 yellow cards.
The last two meetings brought a 2-2 draw at Le Mans and a 0-2 Le Mans win in Troyes, when the hosts had 63% possession and 13 shots but missed 3 big chances. Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and Troyes hold 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss across that run.
Goalkeeper Hillel Konaté has been Troyes' strongest performer over the last 5 matches with an average rating of 7.6, including 3 saves in the 0-0 at Toulouse. Adrien Monfray averages a rating of 7.43 in this fixture, while Harold Voyer was player of the match with a rating of 8 in the most recent meeting.
Le Mans average 2.25 yellow cards per game and Troyes 1.5. Le Mans have stayed under 4.5 cards in each of their last 5 matches, and the head-to-head has produced fewer than 4.5 cards in 6 of 8. Troyes have had fewer than 10.5 corners in 4 of their last 5 and Le Mans in 5 of 6, although Troyes' corner average is the highest in the league.
The 45% home probability and the 56% both-teams-to-score chance point to a narrow Troyes win with goals at both ends. Le Mans' long run without a clean sheet, and Troyes' shot volume at home, support thatReading.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
