Le HavrevsParis Saint-Germain
Fri, Oct 30 · 11:00 AM PT · kicks off in 5h · Referee François Letexier
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 45,595 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 12% | 10.5% | +1.5 pts | 9.00 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Draw | 16% | 16.5% | −0.5 pts | 5.75 19/4 | 17.4% |
| PSG | 72% | 73.0% | −1.0 pts | 1.30 3/10 | 76.9% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.4%, so this book’s margin is 5.4%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| X2 | 1.07 | 93.3% |
| 12 | 1.14 | 87.5% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| X | 2.88 | 34.8% |
| X | 1.73 | 57.9% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 6.50 | 15.4% |
| 2 | 1.11 | 90.0% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.70 | 58.8% |
| No | 2.05 | 48.8% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 98.5% |
| Under | 21.00 | 4.8% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.13 | 88.9% |
| Under | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| Under | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Under | 1.80 | 55.6% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Le Havre goals by PSG goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Le Havre 0 wins · 1 draw · PSG 9 wins.
- Le Havre0–1PSG
- PSG3–0Le Havre
- PSG2–1Le Havre
- Le Havre1–4PSG
- PSG3–3Le Havre
- Le Havre0–2PSG
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- PSGWins8
- Le HavreLosses3
- Le HavreWithout clean sheet5
- Le HavreMore than 2.5 goals4/5
- PSGMore than 2.5 goals5/6
- Le HavreBoth teams scoring4/5
- PSGBoth teams scoring5/6
- PSGFirst to score8/9
- Le HavreFirst to concede4/5
- Le HavreLess than 4.5 cards7/8
- PSGLess than 4.5 cards10/10
- Le HavreLess than 10.5 corners5/7
Fan poll: both teams to score?
7,080 votes (third-party poll): yes 51%, no 49%.
Outside model notes
Le Havre are 18th in Ligue 1 with 2 points from 8 matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses; 8-15 goal difference), while Paris Saint-Germain lead the table on 17 points (5 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; 16-9). The outside model gives the visitors a 72% chance of victory, with 16% for a draw and 12% for a home win. Both teams to score carries a 59% probability.
Le Havre have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded 3 goals in 3 of them; their only win was a 6-1 result against US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale. They have gone 5 matches without a clean sheet. Paris Saint-Germain have won all of their last 5, including 4-2 wins over FC Barcelona and at Manchester City, and are on a run of 8 consecutive victories.
Le Havre have scored 8 goals from 12.77 expected goals, the largest negative difference in the league, and have allowed 30 big chances, the most in Ligue 1. Their defensive work rate is high (20.1 tackles and 11.8 interceptions per game, both top 2 in the league). PSG average 68% possession and 90.5% pass accuracy, both league bests, and have created 36 big chances, but they have converted only 25% of them. All 8 of Le Havre's league goals have come after the 61st minute, while 13 of PSG's 16 have arrived in the same period.
PSG are unbeaten in their last 13 meetings with Le Havre, winning 4 of the last 5 (1 draw). The most recent match at Stade Océane finished 0-1, with goalkeeper Mory Diaw rated 9 after 7 saves as PSG generated 3.82 expected goals. PSG won the reverse fixture 3-0 and have scored first in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Le Havre are without goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi Nzau, Elias Jelert, Timothée Pembélé and Felix Mambimbi. PSG are missing Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, Ousmane Dembélé and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, which reduces their options in wide and attacking areas. Désiré Doué has 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 matches (average rating 8.14), while João Neves averages 7.6 against Le Havre with 3 goal involvements in 3 starts.
François Letexier averages 4.0 yellow cards and 0.29 red cards per match. Le Havre average 1.75 yellow cards per game and have committed 113 fouls, the fifth-highest total in the league; PSG have the fewest yellow cards in Ligue 1 (1.125 per game). Both of the last 2 head-to-head matches produced fewer than 4.5 cards. Le Havre average 5.4 corners per game and PSG 5.9, and 4 of the last 5 meetings produced fewer than 10.5 corners.
The 72% away win probability is supported by PSG's 8-match winning run and their 13-match unbeaten record in this fixture. Le Havre have scored in 4 of their last 5 and both teams to score stands at 59%, so a home goal is realistic. Expect PSG to control possession and take the win, with Le Havre's best spells arriving after the hour mark.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
