Deportivo de A CoruñavsOsasuna
Mon, Nov 2 · 12:00 PM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 1,490 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo | 40% | 44.5% | −4.5 pts | 2.10 11/10 | 47.6% |
| Draw | 29% | 28.8% | +0.2 pts | 3.25 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Osasuna | 31% | 26.7% | +4.3 pts | 3.50 5/2 | 28.6% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 107.0%, so this book’s margin is 7.0%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.29 | 77.8% |
| X2 | 1.70 | 58.8% |
| 12 | 1.33 | 75.0% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| X | 2.05 | 48.8% |
| 2 | 4.33 | 23.1% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| 2 | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.95 | 51.3% |
| No | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.08 | 92.3% |
| Under | 8.00 | 12.5% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Under | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Under | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Under | 1.25 | 80.0% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Deportivo goals by Osasuna goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Deportivo 4 wins · 3 draws · Osasuna 3 wins.
- Deportivo1–2Osasuna
- Osasuna2–1Deportivo
- Deportivo2–0Osasuna
- Osasuna2–2Deportivo
- Deportivo2–0Osasuna
- Osasuna2–1Deportivo
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- DeportivoBoth teams scoring5/7
- DeportivoLess than 4.5 cards5/7
When these two meet
- OsasunaWithout clean sheet7
- DeportivoFirst to score4/5
- BothMore than 4.5 cards5/7
Fan poll: both teams to score?
282 votes (third-party poll): yes 85%, no 15%.
Outside model notes
Deportivo de A Coruña are narrow favourites at the Estadio Riazor, with the outside model giving them a 40% chance of the win against 31% for Osasuna. The home side have drawn 5 of their 10 league matches but concede little in open play, while Osasuna arrive with the second-worst defensive record in the division (20 goals conceded). Osasuna carry a real threat through Ante Budimir, so the most reasonable reading is a tight home win built on control rather than a large margin.
The outside model's most likely scorelines are Deportivo de A Coruña 1-1 Osasuna (13.7%), Deportivo de A Coruña 1-0 Osasuna (10.1%) and Deportivo de A Coruña 0-0 Osasuna (9.0%). Both teams to score is priced at 52%, which fits a home side that has kept no clean sheet this season.
Ante Budimir is the clear deciding figure for Osasuna: 7 league goals, 6.29 expected goals and an average rating of 7.33, plus 2 goals in his last 5 appearances against this opponent. Deportivo's attacking routes run through Mario Soriano (1 goal, 2 assists, 7.08 rating) and Luismi Cruz, who leads the side for expected assists with 1.46; Bil Nsongo has 1.96 expected goals but only 1 goal. Deportivo are without Zakaria Eddahchouri, Bright Ede and Marc Casadó (all injured), while Osasuna lose midfield options Romain Del Castillo and Aimar Oroz to injury.
The last 2 meetings both went to Osasuna, 2-1 in Pamplona in 2019 and 2-1 at the Riazor in 2021. Across the last 5 meetings the record is even (2 Deportivo wins, 1 draw, 2 Osasuna wins), but Osasuna have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of the last 7 head-to-head matches. Deportivo have scored first in 4 of the last 5 encounters.
Deportivo have won 1 of their last 5 in all competitions (a 3-0 cup win at Auriense), losing at Atlético Madrid and Real Sociedad and at home to Porto, with a 1-1 draw against Levante. Osasuna's run reads better on paper: a 6-0 cup win at Atlético Calatayud and a 2-0 home win over Real Racing, offset by a 0-2 loss at Sevilla and a 2-5 defeat at Real Betis. Deportivo score 31% of their goals in the 76th to 90th minute and concede 23% in the same window; Osasuna score 40% of their goals between the 46th and 60th minute and concede 20% in the 76th to 90th minute.
Deportivo sit on 13 goals scored and 13 conceded, with 0 clean sheets, 19 big chances created and only 16 big chances conceded, the third-fewest in the league. They also rank second for interceptions (10 per game) and third for clearances (27 per game). Osasuna have 10 goals from 14.88 expected goals, the second-best overperformance in the division, and convert 45% of their big chances, but they have conceded 20 and average just 3.6 corners per game. Osasuna play the highest share of long passes in the league (12.6%) and rank second for accurate crosses (50).
Both clubs start the day on 11 points, with Deportivo de A Coruña 11th (2 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses) and Osasuna 12th (3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses). A win would move either side clear of the group sitting on 12 points and into the top half, while a defeat leaves them looking down towards the teams on 9 and 10 points.
The referee for this fixture is not confirmed in the available data. Osasuna commit 140 fouls, the fourth-most in the league, and collect 2.6 yellow cards per game; Deportivo average 2.0 and have stayed under 4.5 cards in 5 of their last 7 matches. Deportivo take 5.1 corners per game against Osasuna's 3.6, and the most recent meeting at the Riazor produced 14 corners between the teams.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
