SV 07 Elversbergvs1. FSV Mainz 05
Fri, Oct 30 · 12:30 PM PT · kicks off in 3h · Referee Sascha Stegemann
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 30,398 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | 26% | 29.0% | −3.0 pts | 3.25 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Draw | 25% | 25.1% | −0.1 pts | 3.75 11/4 | 26.7% |
| Mainz 05 | 49% | 45.9% | +3.1 pts | 2.05 21/20 | 48.8% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 106.2%, so this book’s margin is 6.2%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| X2 | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| 12 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 3.60 | 27.8% |
| X | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| 2 | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| 2 | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| No | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.03 | 97.1% |
| Under | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.17 | 85.7% |
| Under | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| Under | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.30 | 43.5% |
| Under | 1.62 | 61.9% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Elversberg goals by Mainz 05 goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Elversberg 0 wins · 0 draws · Mainz 05 2 wins.
- Elversberg0–1Mainz 05
- Elversberg9–10Mainz 05
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- ElversbergWithout clean sheet4
- Mainz 05More than 2.5 goals6/8
- BothFirst to concede5/7
- ElversbergLess than 4.5 cards5/6
- Mainz 05Less than 4.5 cards5/5
- Mainz 05Less than 10.5 corners5/7
Fan poll: both teams to score?
6,366 votes (third-party poll): yes 89%, no 11%.
Outside model notes
Elversberg are 8th on 10 points and Mainz are 7th on 10 points, so two sides level on points meet at the Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. Mainz are the favoured side, with the outside model probabilities at 49% for an away win, 26% for a home win and 25% for a draw. Both teams have scored in 63% of the model's simulations, which fits two teams with clear strengths going forward and visible defensive gaps.
Elversberg have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 matches, and they have not kept a clean sheet in their last 4. The home win over Augsburg showed their attacking side, but the 0-2 loss to Darmstadt came despite 26 shots and 18 corners, which highlights a finishing problem rather than a creation problem. Away from home they took a 0-0 at Schalke but lost 4-0 at RB Leipzig and 1-0 at Union Berlin.
Mainz have 2 wins and 3 defeats from their last 5, including a 3-0 cup win at Waldhof Mannheim and a 1-0 league win at Schalke. Their home matches have been open: they lost 2-3 to Werder Bremen and 3-4 to Bayer Leverkusen, and they also lost 0-2 at Bochum. They score consistently but concede in clusters, particularly early in matches.
Elversberg have 12 goals scored and 15 conceded, with 10.34 expected goals. They face 21.1 shots per game, the highest figure in the league, and win only 46.7% of ground duels. Mainz have 16 goals scored and 13 conceded, with 15.71 expected goals, 27 big chances created (2nd in the league) and 62 accurate crosses (1st). Mainz also lead the league for headed goals (4) and win 53.0% of aerial duels.
The last meeting was in August 2023, when Mainz won 1-0 away after 27 shots to 5, with Nicolas Kristof making 8 saves. The only other recent meeting was a 1-1 draw over 120 minutes in the 2021 cup. The sample is small, but Mainz have controlled both games in terms of chances created.
Elversberg are without Tom Zimmerschied and have Noah Darvich rated doubtful. Mainz are missing Dominik Kohr, Silas and Otto Ruoppi. Anthony Caci is Mainz's form player with 3 goals, 3 assists and an average rating of 7.84 across his last 5 matches, and his delivery supports their league-leading crossing numbers.
No referee has been confirmed, so card expectations come from the teams. Elversberg average 2.0 yellow cards per game and Mainz 2.29, and both have stayed under 4.5 cards in 5 of their last 6 and 5 of their last 5 respectively. Elversberg average 4 corners per game and Mainz 5, and Mainz have recorded under 10.5 corners in 5 of their last 7. A total of around 4 yellow cards and 10 corners is a fair reading.
Mainz have the stronger attacking profile and the better chance creation numbers, while Elversberg concede a high volume of shots and have struggled to convert their own chances. The probabilities point to an away win with both teams scoring, and that is the direction of this prediction.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
