1. FC Union Berlinvs1. FC Köln
Sun, Nov 1 · 6:30 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 2,786 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 40% | 36.6% | +3.4 pts | 2.60 8/5 | 38.5% |
| Draw | 26% | 27.2% | −1.2 pts | 3.50 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Köln | 34% | 36.2% | −2.2 pts | 2.63 163/100 | 38.0% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.1%, so this book’s margin is 5.1%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| X2 | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| 12 | 1.29 | 77.8% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| X | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| 2 | 3.10 | 32.3% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.83 | 54.5% |
| 2 | 1.83 | 54.5% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| No | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.04 | 96.2% |
| Under | 13.00 | 7.7% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| Under | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| Under | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Under | 1.53 | 65.2% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Union Berlin goals by Köln goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Union Berlin 5 wins · 3 draws · Köln 2 wins.
- Köln5–0Union Berlin
- Union Berlin2–2Köln
- Köln0–1Union Berlin
- Köln3–2Union Berlin
- Union Berlin2–0Köln
- Union Berlin0–0Köln
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- Union BerlinNo wins3
- Union BerlinLess than 2.5 goals4/5
- Union BerlinLess than 4.5 cards6/8
- KölnLess than 4.5 cards8/10
- Union BerlinLess than 10.5 corners5/6
When these two meet
- BothLess than 10.5 corners5/6
Fan poll: both teams to score?
569 votes (third-party poll): yes 89%, no 11%.
Outside model notes
1. FC Union Berlin sit 17th with 6 points from 7 matches, while 1. FC Köln are 12th with 8 points. The hosts are without a win in 3 league matches and have conceded 18 goals, the second-worst record in the division. Köln arrive after a 0-0 draw with FC Schalke 04 and have lost once in their past 5 matches in all competitions. The outside model gives Union a 40% chance of victory, with 26% for a draw and 34% for a Köln win, and a 60% chance that both teams score.
Union have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their past 5 matches in all competitions, including a 1-0 win at HNK Rijeka and a 1-0 home win over SV 07 Elversberg. Their league run is the concern: 2 draws and a 5-0 defeat in the past 3. They have created only 9 big chances all season (rank 18 in the league) and scored 6 goals, although 4 of those 6 have come after the 75th minute. Two clean sheets from 7 matches show the defensive structure can hold, but 18 goals conceded outweigh that.
Köln have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their past 5 in all competitions, beating Borussia M'gladbach 2-1 and drawing 0-0 with Schalke. They have scored 8 and conceded 11 in the league, and their 18 big chances created is double Union's total, but a conversion rate of 16.7% is among the weakest in the division. Away from home they have been less productive, with a 1-0 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt their only league loss in the past 4.
Köln won the most recent meeting 5-0, while the previous encounter at An der alten Försterei finished 2-2 after Union came back from 2 goals down. Across the past 5 meetings it is even: 2 Union wins, 1 draw and 2 Köln wins. Both of the past 2 meetings produced 4 or more goals, and 5 of the past 6 meetings have had fewer than 10.5 corners.
Union average 42.6% possession and 73.9% pass accuracy (rank 16 and 17 in the league), the profile of a team that defends deep and plays long. Köln average 50.3% possession and 82.7% pass accuracy (rank 9 and 8 respectively). Union have won 50.6% of ground duels and 47.4% of aerial duels; Köln 51.3% and 47.6%. Köln have allowed 18 big chances this season, the fifth-fewest in the league.
Union are without Andrik Markgraf (injured) and Felix Uduokhai (suspended after a red card), which leaves them short in central defence. Köln miss Timo Hübers, Ellyes Skhiri, Thijs Dallinga and Imad Rondić, all injured, reducing options in midfield and up front. Said El Mala has 3 goals and 1 assist in recent meetings between the sides and was player of the match in the last encounter with a rating of 9.6, while goalkeeper Marvin Schwäbe averages 7.8 in his past 5 matches.
No referee has been confirmed for this fixture. Union average 2.57 yellow cards and 79 fouls from 7 matches, Köln 1.86 cards and 75 fouls; Union have stayed under 4.5 cards in 6 of 8 matches, Köln in 8 of 10. On corners, Union average 3.57 per game (rank 17 in the league) and Köln 6.0 (rank 5), while fewer than 10.5 corners have been recorded in 5 of 6 Union matches and in 5 of 6 head-to-head meetings.
The outside model narrowly favours the hosts (40% home win, 26% draw, 34% away win), and Union's home record against a Köln side missing two forwards supports that lean. With a 60% chance of both teams scoring, a close home win with goals at both ends fits the data best. The low corner volume and the moderate card records of both sides point to a controlled match.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
