Patrick Mahomes

Season avg257.5Pass+Rush Yds · +18.0 vs 239.5

Sample63 under 239.5

Live lines57none on today’s board

vs DEN207.0avg over 1 game

Sunday’s context

The adjustments behind Sunday’s Pass+Rush Yds projection against DEN, largest first.

Game total 40.5 (-5.1%)The betting market's expected game total. Higher-scoring games lift counting stats; the projection moved by the % shown.
AwayHome/away effect on this stat.

On today’s board

Not on today’s board

No prop for this player cleared the filters for this slate. The model’s read on each live line is in the table below.

See today’s board

Every live line

Every PrizePicks line for Patrick Mahomes right now. The side is the model’s (demons and goblins are OVER-only); vs BE is the model’s margin over that prop type’s break-even — 57.7% standard, 44.7% demon, 66.7% goblin. Cleared counts logged games past the line on that side; the tick on each bar is break-even. Books is the range of sportsbook lines on the same stat. Outside proj is a projection from outside PropEdge, not ours; Other apps is the range of lines other pick’em apps post. Arrows point to where they sit against the PrizePicks line.

Every live PrizePicks line for Patrick Mahomes, with the model’s side, probability and sportsbook lines
Stat	Line	Side	Proj	Outside proj	Cleared	Model	vs BE	Books	Other apps
Pass Attempts	33.5	UNDER	30.8	32.9	5/6	62%	+3.9	32.5, supports the UNDER	33.5
Pass TDsdemon	1.5	OVER only	1.4	1.2	4/6	47%	+2.6	1.5	1.5
Pass Yardsdemon	235.5	OVER only	218.4	228.8	3/6	45%	+0.1	225.5	224.5
Pass Yards	223.5	OVER	218.4	228.8	4/6	57%	−0.8	225.5, supports the OVER	224.5
Pass Yardsdemon	239.5	OVER only	218.4	228.8	3/6	44%	−0.8	225.5	224.5
Pass TDsgoblin	0.5	OVER only	1.4	1.2	4/6	66%	−1.1	1.5	1.5
Pass+Rush Ydsgoblin	199.5	OVER only	244.8	none	5/6	64%	−2.8	no line	239.5–240.5
Pass+Rush Ydsgoblin	179.5	OVER only	244.8	none	5/6	64%	−2.8	no line	239.5–240.5
Pass Yardsgoblin	174.5	OVER only	218.4	228.8	5/6	64%	−2.8	225.5	224.5
Pass Yardsgoblin	169.5	OVER only	218.4	228.8	5/6	64%	−2.8	225.5	224.5
Rush Yards	12.5	OVER	10.0	23.9	4/6	55%	−3.1	12.5	12.5–14.5
Pass Yardsgoblin	199.5	OVER only	218.4	228.8	4/6	63%	−4.0	225.5	224.5
Pass Completionsgoblin	18.5	OVER only	19.4	21.7	4/6	62%	−5.1	20.5	20.5
Pass Completionsgoblin	17.5	OVER only	19.4	21.7	4/6	62%	−5.1	20.5	20.5
Pass Completions	20.5	UNDER	19.4	21.7	4/6	52%	−5.5	20.5	20.5
INT	0.5	OVER	0.7	none	4/6	52%	−5.5	no line	not listed
Rush Yardsdemon	14.5	OVER only	10.0	23.9	3/6	38%	−6.8	12.5	12.5–14.5
Pass+Rush Ydsdemon	249.5	OVER only	244.8	none	2/6	38%	−7.0	no line	239.5–240.5
Pass+Rush Yds	239.5	UNDER	244.8	none	3/6	51%	−7.1	no line	239.5–240.5
Rush Yardsgoblin	9.5	OVER only	10.0	23.9	4/6	60%	−7.1	12.5	12.5–14.5
Rush Yardsgoblin	4.5	OVER only	10.0	23.9	4/6	60%	−7.1	12.5	12.5–14.5
Pass Attemptsgoblin	29.5	OVER only	30.8	32.9	4/6	59%	−8.1	32.5	33.5
Pass Attemptsgoblin	27.5	OVER only	30.8	32.9	4/6	59%	−8.1	32.5	33.5
Pass Yardsgoblin	219.5	OVER only	218.4	228.8	4/6	58%	−8.7	225.5	224.5
Pass Completionsdemon	21.5	OVER only	19.4	21.7	2/6	35%	−9.7	20.5	20.5
Pass Yardsdemon	249.5	OVER only	218.4	228.8	2/6	34%	−11.0	225.5	224.5
Pass Completionsdemon	22.5	OVER only	19.4	21.7	2/6	32%	−12.4	20.5	20.5
Pass+Rush Ydsgoblin	229.5	OVER only	244.8	none	3/6	51%	−15.7	no line	239.5–240.5
Pass Completionsgoblin	19.5	OVER only	19.4	21.7	3/6	49%	−18.0	20.5	20.5
Pass Attemptsdemon	35.5	OVER only	30.8	32.9	1/6	20%	−25.0	32.5	33.5
Pass Attemptsgoblin	31.5	OVER only	30.8	32.9	2/6	41%	−25.3	32.5	33.5
Pass+Rush Ydsdemon	299.5	OVER only	244.8	none	1/6	16%	−28.4	no line	239.5–240.5
Pass Attemptsdemon	37.5	OVER only	30.8	32.9	1/6	16%	−28.5	32.5	33.5
Anytime TDsdemon	0.5	OVER only	0.1	none	1/6	15%	−30.2	no line	not listed
Rush Yardsdemon	19.5	OVER only	10.0	23.9	1/6	13%	−31.9	12.5	12.5–14.5
Pass+Rush Ydsdemon	359.5	OVER only	244.8	none	1/6	11%	−33.9	no line	239.5–240.5
Pass Completionsdemon	30.5	OVER only	19.4	21.7	1/6	9%	−36.1	20.5	20.5
Pass Yardsdemon	355.5	OVER only	218.4	228.8	1/6	9%	−36.2	225.5	224.5
Pass Attemptsdemon	45.5	OVER only	30.8	32.9	1/6	8%	−36.4	32.5	33.5
INTdemon	1.5	OVER only	0.7	none	0/6	7%	−37.7	no line	not listed
Rush Yardsdemon	49.5	OVER only	10.0	23.9	0/6	5%	−39.7	12.5	12.5–14.5
Rush Yardsdemon	29.5	OVER only	10.0	23.9	0/6	5%	−39.7	12.5	12.5–14.5
Pass TDsdemon	3.5	OVER only	1.4	1.2	0/6	5%	−39.7	1.5	1.5
INTdemon	2.5	OVER only	0.7	none	0/6	5%	−39.7	no line	not listed
Longest Completiondemon	49.5	OVER only	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	not listed
Longest Completiondemon	44.5	OVER only	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	not listed
Longest Completiondemon	39.5	OVER only	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	not listed
Longest Completion	35.5	no call	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	not listed
Longest Completiongoblin	34.5	OVER only	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	not listed
Longest Completiongoblin	29.5	OVER only	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	not listed
Longest Rushdemon	19.5	OVER only	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	10.5
Longest Rushdemon	14.5	OVER only	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	10.5
Longest Rush	10.5	no call	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	10.5
Longest Rushgoblin	9.5	OVER only	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	10.5
Fantasy Scoredemon	18.5	OVER only	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	not listed
Fantasy Score	15	no call	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	not listed
Fantasy Scoregoblin	11.5	OVER only	not projected	none	no log	no game log	—	no line	not listed

Our record on Patrick Mahomes

1–0 across 1 graded pick, newest first. Voided (did-not-play) picks are left out.

Graded picks on Patrick Mahomes
Date	Pick	Actual	Result
Oct 18	pass yards OVER 174.5	272	Hit

vs DEN

Every logged game against DEN (Pass+Rush Yds), read straight off the game log — not a season-long split.

vs DEN207.0avg over 1 game

Season avg257.5all games

Difference−50.5vs the season average

Best207in that matchup

Every logged game against DEN
Date	Pass+Rush Yds	vs 239.5
Sep 14	207	−32.5

Profile

Patrick Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · #15

Position: Quarterback
Age: 31
Height: 6′2″ · 187 cm
Nationality: USA

NFL 26/27 · regular season

Games6

Pass yds / game245.7

Pass TD9

Interceptions thrown4

Completion %64.9%

Yards / attempt7.7

NFL 26/27 · regular season statistics
Stat	Value
Passer rating	95.3
Rush yds / game	11.8
Rush TD	1
Carries / game	3.2
Yards / carry	3.7

Profile data from a third-party sports data provider.

Game log · Pass+Rush Yds

Most recent first, read against the UNDER 239.5 line: games that cleared it are lit. The tape draws the last 6, oldest on the left.

Last 63/6 cleared

239.5

6 games agolast game

Game log · Pass+Rush Yds, most recent game first
Date	Opp	Pass+Rush Yds	vs 239.5
Oct 25	SEA	179	−60.5
Oct 18	LAC	288	+48.5
Oct 4	LV	225	−14.5
Sep 27	MIA	247	+7.5
Sep 20	IND	399	+159.5
Sep 14	DEN	207	−32.5