Next gameMIN @ DETaway at DETSun, Nov 1 · 10:00 AM PT
refreshes every ~15 min
Justin Jefferson
Sunday’s context
The adjustments behind Sunday’s Receiving Yards projection against DET, largest first.
- Weak D (+9%)Opponent's defense against this stat versus league average.
- Game total 46 (+1.1%)The betting market's expected game total. Higher-scoring games lift counting stats; the projection moved by the % shown.
- AwayHome/away effect on this stat.
On today’s board
Not on today’s board
No prop for this player cleared the filters for this slate. The model’s read on each live line is in the table below.
See today’s boardEvery live line
Every PrizePicks line for Justin Jefferson right now. The side is the model’s (demons and goblins are OVER-only); vs BE is the model’s margin over that prop type’s break-even — 57.7% standard, 44.7% demon, 66.7% goblin. Cleared counts logged games past the line on that side; the tick on each bar is break-even. Books is the range of sportsbook lines on the same stat. Outside proj is a projection from outside PropEdge, not ours; Other apps is the range of lines other pick’em apps post. Arrows point to where they sit against the PrizePicks line.
| Stat | Line | Side | Proj | Outside proj | Cleared | Model | vs BE | Books | Other apps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Receiving YardsgoblinNot published: our graded NFL Receiving Yards OVER demons went 4–5 over the last 30 days. | 39.5 | OVER only | 64.7 | 86.8▲ | 4/5 | 73% | +6.5 | 76.5▲ | 75.5–79.5▲ |
Receptions | 6 | UNDER | 4.9 | 6.5▲ | 4/5 | 62% | +4.5 | 5.5▼, supports the UNDER | 5.5▼ |
Anytime TDsdemon | 0.5 | OVER only | 0.6 | none | 2/5 | 45% | +0.1 | no line | not listed |
Receiving Yards | 76.5 | UNDER | 64.7 | 86.8▲ | 3/5 | 56% | −1.4 | 76.5▲ | 75.5–79.5▲ |
Receiving YardsgoblinNot published: our graded NFL Receiving Yards OVER demons went 4–5 over the last 30 days. | 49.5 | OVER only | 64.7 | 86.8▲ | 3/5 | 63% | −3.9 | 76.5▲ | 75.5–79.5▲ |
Receptionsgoblin | 3.5 | OVER only | 4.9 | 6.5▲ | 3/5 | 59% | −8.1 | 5.5▲ | 5.5▲ |
Rush Attemptsdemon | 0.5 | OVER only | 0.2 | 0.1▼ | 1/5 | 25% | −20.2 | no line | not listed |
Receptionsgoblin | 4.5 | OVER only | 4.9 | 6.5▲ | 2/5 | 45% | −21.4 | 5.5▲ | 5.5▲ |
Receiving YardsgoblinNot published: our graded NFL Receiving Yards OVER demons went 4–5 over the last 30 days. | 69.5 | OVER only | 64.7 | 86.8▲ | 2/5 | 44% | −23.0 | 76.5▲ | 75.5–79.5▲ |
Receptionsdemon | 6.5 | OVER only | 4.9 | 6.5▲ | 1/5 | 18% | −26.6 | 5.5▲ | 5.5▲ |
Receiving Yardsdemon | 86.5 | OVER only | 64.7 | 86.8▲ | 1/5 | 16% | −28.4 | 76.5▲ | 75.5–79.5▲ |
Receptionsgoblin | 5.5 | OVER only | 4.9 | 6.5▲ | 2/5 | 38% | −29.0 | 5.5▲ | 5.5▲ |
Receiving Yardsdemon | 89.5 | OVER only | 64.7 | 86.8▼ | 1/5 | 15% | −29.8 | 76.5▲ | 75.5–79.5▲ |
Anytime TDsdemon | 1.5 | OVER only | 0.6 | none | 1/5 | 15% | −30.1 | no line | not listed |
Receptionsdemon | 7.5 | OVER only | 4.9 | 6.5▼ | 1/5 | 13% | −31.3 | 5.5▲ | 5.5▲ |
Rush Yardsdemon | 0.5 | OVER only | -2.3 | 0.5▼ | 0/5 | 13% | −31.5 | no line | not listed |
Receiving Yardsdemon | 174.5 | OVER only | 64.7 | 86.8▼ | 0/5 | 5% | −39.7 | 76.5▲ | 75.5–79.5▲ |
Receiving Yardsdemon | 99.5 | OVER only | 64.7 | 86.8▼ | 0/5 | 5% | −39.7 | 76.5▲ | 75.5–79.5▲ |
Receptionsdemon | 10.5 | OVER only | 4.9 | 6.5▼ | 0/5 | 5% | −39.7 | 5.5▲ | 5.5▲ |
Longest Receptiondemon | 59.5 | OVER only | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | 24.5▲ |
Longest Receptiondemon | 39.5 | OVER only | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | 24.5▲ |
Longest Receptiondemon | 29.5 | OVER only | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | 24.5▲ |
Longest Reception | 25.5 | no call | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | 24.5▼ |
Longest Receptiongoblin | 24.5 | OVER only | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | 24.5▲ |
Longest Receptiongoblin | 19.5 | OVER only | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | 24.5▲ |
Fantasy Scoredemon | 21 | OVER only | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | not listed |
Fantasy Score | 15.5 | no call | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | not listed |
Fantasy Scoregoblin | 11.5 | OVER only | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | not listed |
Rec Targets | 8.5 | no call | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | not listed |
vs DET
No logged games against DET in the 5 games we hold.
Game log · Receiving Yards
Most recent first, read against the UNDER 76.5 line: games that cleared it are lit. The tape draws the last 5, oldest on the left.
| Date | Opp | Receiving Yards | vs 76.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 44 | −32.5 | |
| NO | 79 | +2.5 | |
| TB | 32 | −44.5 | |
| CHI | 55 | −21.5 | |
| GB | 92 | +15.5 |