Next gameARI @ DALhome vs ARISun, Nov 1 · 10:00 AM PT
refreshes every ~15 min
Jake Ferguson
Sunday’s context
The adjustments behind Sunday’s Receiving Yards projection against ARI, largest first.
- Weak D (+10%)Opponent's defense against this stat versus league average.
- Game total 54.5 (+8.0%)The betting market's expected game total. Higher-scoring games lift counting stats; the projection moved by the % shown.
- HomeHome/away effect on this stat.
On today’s board
Not on today’s board
No prop for this player cleared the filters for this slate. The model’s read on each live line is in the table below.
See today’s boardEvery live line
Every PrizePicks line for Jake Ferguson right now. The side is the model’s (demons and goblins are OVER-only); vs BE is the model’s margin over that prop type’s break-even — 57.7% standard, 44.7% demon, 66.7% goblin. Cleared counts logged games past the line on that side; the tick on each bar is break-even. Books is the range of sportsbook lines on the same stat. Outside proj is a projection from outside PropEdge, not ours; Other apps is the range of lines other pick’em apps post. Arrows point to where they sit against the PrizePicks line.
| Stat | Line | Side | Proj | Outside proj | Cleared | Model | vs BE | Books | Other apps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Receiving YardsgoblinNot published: our graded NFL Receiving Yards OVER demons went 4–5 over the last 30 days. | 4.5 | OVER only | 19.1 | 35.4▲ | 6/7 | 73% | +6.5 | 14.5▲ | 14.5▲ |
Receptionsdemon | 2.5 | OVER only | 2.8 | 3.5▲ | 4/7 | 47% | +2.7 | 1.5▲ | 1.5▲ |
Receiving YardsgoblinNot published: our graded NFL Receiving Yards OVER demons went 4–5 over the last 30 days. | 9.5 | OVER only | 19.1 | 35.4▲ | 5/7 | 64% | −2.8 | 14.5▲ | 14.5▲ |
Receptionsgoblin | 1.5 | OVER only | 2.8 | 3.5▲ | 6/7 | 64% | −2.8 | 1.5▲ | 1.5▲ |
Receiving Yards | 14.5 | UNDER | 19.1 | 35.4▲ | 4/7 | 51% | −6.7 | 14.5▲ | 14.5▲ |
Receiving Yardsdemon | 19.5 | OVER only | 19.1 | 35.4▲ | 2/7 | 34% | −10.9 | 14.5▲ | 14.5▲ |
Anytime TDsdemon | 0.5 | OVER only | 0.4 | none | 2/7 | 33% | −11.5 | no line | not listed |
Receptionsdemon | 3.5 | OVER only | 2.8 | 3.5▼ | 1/7 | 20% | −25.0 | 1.5▲ | 1.5▲ |
Receiving Yardsdemon | 29.5 | OVER only | 19.1 | 35.4▲ | 1/7 | 16% | −29.0 | 14.5▲ | 14.5▲ |
Receiving Yardsdemon | 39.5 | OVER only | 19.1 | 35.4▼ | 1/7 | 9% | −36.1 | 14.5▲ | 14.5▲ |
Receptionsdemon | 4.5 | OVER only | 2.8 | 3.5▼ | 0/7 | 7% | −37.5 | 1.5▲ | 1.5▲ |
Receiving Yardsdemon | 59.5 | OVER only | 19.1 | 35.4▼ | 0/7 | 5% | −39.7 | 14.5▲ | 14.5▲ |
Longest Receptiondemon | 24.5 | OVER only | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | 10.5▲ |
Longest Receptiondemon | 19.5 | OVER only | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | 10.5▲ |
Longest Receptiondemon | 14.5 | OVER only | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | 10.5▲ |
Longest Reception | 9.5 | no call | not projected | none | no log | no game log | — | no line | 10.5▲ |
vs ARI
No logged games against ARI in the 7 games we hold.
Game log · Receiving Yards
Most recent first, read against the UNDER 14.5 line: games that cleared it are lit. The tape draws the last 7, oldest on the left.
| Date | Opp | Receiving Yards | vs 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | −14.5 | |
| GB | 13 | −1.5 | |
| TB | 19 | +4.5 | |
| HOU | 11 | −3.5 | |
| BAL | 23 | +8.5 | |
| WSH | 43 | +28.5 | |
| NYG | 6 | −8.5 |