Aaron Nesmith

Season avg13.5Points · +1.0 vs 12.5

Sample2010 over 12.5

Live lines16none on today’s board

vs MIA—no logged games vs MIA

Tomorrow’s context

The adjustments behind tomorrow’s Points projection against MIA, largest first.

Weak D (+6%)Opponent's defense against this stat versus league average.
Game total 236 (+2.4%)The betting market's expected game total. Higher-scoring games lift counting stats; the projection moved by the % shown.
AwayHome/away effect on this stat.

On today’s board

Not on today’s board

No prop for this player cleared the filters for this slate. The model’s read on each live line is in the table below.

See today’s board

Every live line

Every PrizePicks line for Aaron Nesmith right now. The side is the model’s (demons and goblins are OVER-only); vs BE is the model’s margin over that prop type’s break-even — 57.7% standard, 44.7% demon, 66.7% goblin. Cleared counts logged games past the line on that side; the tick on each bar is break-even. Books is the range of sportsbook lines on the same stat. Other apps is the range of lines other pick’em apps post. Arrows point to where they sit against the PrizePicks line. A ▲ or ▼ beside a line is how far PrizePicks has moved it since it was first posted today.

Every live PrizePicks line for Aaron Nesmith, with the model’s side, probability and sportsbook lines
Stat	Line	Side	Proj	Cleared	Model	vs BE	Books	Other apps
Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	2.4	16/20	62%	+3.9	no line	3.5
Stealsdemon	0.5	OVER only	0.5	9/20	47%	+2.4	no line	0.5
Turnoversdemon	1.5	OVER only	1.5	7/20	46%	+1.6	no line	not listed
Pointsdemon	14.5	OVER only	14.5	6/20	42%	−2.7	no line	12.5
3-PT Madedemon	2.5	OVER only	2.2	6/20	42%	−2.7	no line	2.5
Pointsgoblin	9.5	OVER only	14.5	13/20	64%	−2.8	no line	12.5
Points	12.5, down from 13.5 at today's open	OVER	14.5	10/20	52%	−5.5	no line	12.5
Pts+Rebs+AstsNot published: our last 12 graded NBA Pts+Rebs+Asts UNDER picks went 4–8.	17.5, down from 18.5 at today's open	UNDER	17.8	12/20	52%	−5.7	no line	17.5
Blks+Stlsgoblin	0.5	OVER only	0.9	14/20	59%	−8.1	no line	not listed
Blocked Shotsdemon	0.5	OVER only	0.3	6/20	28%	−16.8	no line	not listed
Pointsdemon	19.5	OVER only	14.5	3/20	19%	−25.8	no line	12.5
Stealsdemon	1.5	OVER only	0.5	2/20	14%	−30.6	no line	0.5
Pointsdemon	24.5	OVER only	14.5	3/20	13%	−31.8	no line	12.5
Stealsdemon	2.5	OVER only	0.5	0/20	5%	−39.7	no line	0.5
Blocked Shotsdemon	2.5	OVER only	0.3	0/20	5%	−39.7	no line	not listed
Blocked Shotsdemon	1.5	OVER only	0.3	2/20	5%	−39.7	no line	not listed

vs MIA

No logged games against MIA in the 20 games we hold.

Profile

Aaron Nesmith · Indiana Pacers · #23

Position: Small forward
Age: 27
Height: 6′6″ · 198 cm
Nationality: USA
Contract until: Jun 2029

NBA 26/27 · regular season

Rating6.68Avg match rating (third-party, 0–10)

Games4

Points / game13.3

Rebounds / game1.8

Assists / game1.3

Minutes / game21.8

NBA 26/27 · regular season statistics
Stat	Value
3-pointers / game	2.3
Pts + reb + ast / game	16.3
Steals / game	0.8
Blocks / game	0.3
Turnovers / game	1.5
Field goal %	38.6%
3-point %	34.6%
Free throw %	83.3%
True shooting %	53.8%
Usage rate	25.5%
Double-doubles	0
Triple-doubles	0
Plus/minus	+4

Team history

Jul 2022Boston Celtics to Indiana Pacers
Dec 2020No team to Boston Celtics

Profile data from a third-party sports data provider.

Game log · Points

Most recent first, read against the OVER 12.5 line: games that cleared it are lit. The tape draws the last 15, oldest on the left.

Last 1510/15 cleared

12.5

15 games agolast game

Game log · Points, most recent game first
Date	Opp	Points	vs 12.5	Min
Oct 28	PHI	18	+5.5	27
Oct 26	MIL	13	+0.5	21
Oct 25	BKN	13	+0.5	19
Oct 23	DAL	9	−3.5	20
Mar 27	LAC	26	+13.5	35
Mar 25	LAL	14	+1.5	32
Mar 23	ORL	19	+6.5	35
Mar 21	SA	5	−7.5	25
Mar 18	POR	15	+2.5	26
Mar 17	NY	14	+1.5	24
Mar 15	MIL	32	+19.5	29
Mar 13	NY	12	−0.5	34
Mar 10	SAC	29	+16.5	35
Mar 8	POR	9	−3.5	25
Mar 6	LAL	7	−5.5	23
Mar 4	LAC	2	−10.5	20
Feb 19	WSH	3	−9.5	15
Feb 10	NY	11	−1.5	37
Feb 8	TOR	7	−5.5	23
Feb 6	MIL	12	−0.5	27