AC MilanvsInter
Sat, Oct 31 · 12:45 PM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 21,189 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan | 29% | 26.3% | +2.7 pts | 3.60 13/5 | 27.8% |
| Draw | 27% | 26.3% | +0.7 pts | 3.60 13/5 | 27.8% |
| Inter | 44% | 47.4% | −3.4 pts | 2.00 1/1 | 50.0% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.6%, so this book’s margin is 5.6%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| X2 | 1.29 | 77.8% |
| 12 | 1.29 | 77.8% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 3.75 | 26.7% |
| X | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| 1 | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| 2 | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| No | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.03 | 97.1% |
| Under | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| Under | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| Under | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Under | 1.50 | 66.7% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Milan goals by Inter goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Milan 5 wins · 3 draws · Inter 2 wins.
- Milan1–1Inter
- Milan1–0Inter
- Inter0–1Milan
- Inter0–3Milan
- Milan1–1Inter
- Milan1–1Inter
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- InterWins4
- MilanMore than 2.5 goals4/5
- MilanFirst to score5/7
- MilanFirst half winner4/5
- MilanLess than 4.5 cards4/5
- MilanLess than 10.5 corners7/7
- InterLess than 10.5 corners8/8
When these two meet
- MilanNo losses8
- InterWithout clean sheet10
- BothLess than 2.5 goals5/6
- MilanFirst to score5/6
- BothLess than 4.5 cards6/6
Fan poll: both teams to score?
4,723 votes (third-party poll): yes 90%, no 10%.
Outside model notes
Inter are the stronger side on the season data and are backed to take the win, in line with the 44% away probability. They lead the league on 25 points, have scored 25 goals and created 46 big chances, both league highs, while Milan sit 5th on 18 points. Milan's counter-argument is their derby record: no defeat in the last 8 meetings, including 3 wins in the last 5. Milan's absences in midfield and defence, plus Inter's advantage in possession and duels, tip the balance to the away side in a close match.
The outside model gives Inter a 44% chance of winning, with Milan on 29% and the draw on 27%. The most likely scorelines are AC Milan 1-1 Inter (12.3%), AC Milan 1-2 Inter (9.3%) and AC Milan 0-1 Inter (7.6%). Both teams to score carries a 60% probability.
Alphadjo Cisse has 5 goals in his last 5 matches for Milan and is their clearest threat. Mike Maignan averages a the outside model rating of 8.06 against Inter with 4.6 saves per game, and his work will decide how long Milan stay level. Inter lean on Marcus Thuram (2 goals, 7.76 rating in his last 5) and Carlos Augusto (2 goals, 1 assist, 7.8 rating). Milan are without Alexis Saelemaekers, Samuel Chukwueze and Matteo Gabbia through injury, with Fikayo Tomori and Pietro Terracciano doubtful. Inter lose Lautaro Martínez, Benjamin Pavard, John Stones, Curtis Jones and Luís Henrique to injury.
Milan have not lost any of the last 8 meetings, winning 3 and drawing 2 of the last 5. Inter have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of the last 10 derbies. The last two meetings were a 1-1 draw in August 2026 and a 1-0 Milan win in March 2026, with Milan scoring first in 5 of the last 6. Fewer than 3 goals have been scored in 5 of the last 6 derbies, and fewer than 5 cards have been shown in all 6.
Inter have won 4 of their last 5, their only setback the 3-4 home defeat to Club Brugge, and they have scored in every one of those matches. Milan have won 3 of their last 5 but were beaten 2-4 at home by Bologna and 0-3 at Bournemouth. Milan concentrate their scoring late in the middle phase, with 10 of their 18 league goals coming between minutes 61 and 75, but they concede heavily at the end: 4 of 11 goals against have arrived between minutes 76 and 90. Inter are the opposite, scoring 9 of their 25 goals in the final 15 minutes, while 3 of the 10 they have conceded came in the opening 15.
Inter lead the league in goals (25), possession (63%), big chances created (46), accurate passes, accurate crosses, ground duels won (54.6%) and aerial duels won (63.2%). Their weakness is finishing: 31 big chances missed, the most in the league, and 10 strikes against the woodwork, also a league high. Milan hold 60.4% possession and have created 35 big chances, but they have missed 23 of them and converted only 34.3%. Milan also average just 3 corners per game, the lowest in the league, while allowing only 9.78 shots against per game, the second-lowest.
Inter top the table with 25 points from 9 matches (8 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats, 25-10 goal difference) and are level on points with Lazio. Milan are 5th on 18 points (5 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat, 18-11), 7 points behind Inter, so a win would pull them back into the title group while a defeat leaves them fighting for a top-four place. The match is played at San Siro.
The referee for this match is not confirmed in the available data. Both teams are disciplined: Milan average 1.67 yellow cards per game and Inter 1.44, and fewer than 5 cards have been shown in all 6 recent derbies. Corners should be limited too. Milan average 3 corners per game, the lowest in the league, and have stayed under 10.5 in all 7 matches; Inter average 5.78 and have stayed under 10.5 in all 8.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
