LaziovsCagliari
Sun, Nov 1 · 6:00 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 6,576 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 72% | 65.6% | +6.4 pts | 1.44 11/25 | 69.4% |
| Draw | 17% | 21.8% | −4.8 pts | 4.33 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Cagliari | 11% | 12.6% | −1.6 pts | 7.50 13/2 | 13.3% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.9%, so this book’s margin is 5.9%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.10 | 90.9% |
| X2 | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| 12 | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 1.95 | 51.2% |
| X | 2.40 | 41.7% |
| 2 | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.14 | 87.5% |
| 2 | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.95 | 51.3% |
| No | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.05 | 95.2% |
| Under | 11.00 | 9.1% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| Under | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Under | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| Under | 1.40 | 71.4% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Lazio goals by Cagliari goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Lazio 8 wins · 2 draws · Cagliari 0 wins.
- Cagliari0–0Lazio
- Lazio2–0Cagliari
- Cagliari1–2Lazio
- Lazio2–1Cagliari
- Cagliari1–3Lazio
- Lazio1–0Cagliari
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- LazioWins4
- CagliariLosses3
- LazioNo losses11
- CagliariNo wins4
- CagliariWithout clean sheet4
- LazioMore than 2.5 goals5/5
- LazioBoth teams scoring4/5
- LazioFirst to score8/8
- CagliariFirst to score5/7
- LazioLess than 4.5 cards5/6
- CagliariLess than 4.5 cards9/10
When these two meet
- LazioNo losses20
Fan poll: both teams to score?
874 votes (third-party poll): yes 70%, no 30%.
Outside model notes
Lazio sit 2nd in Serie A with 25 points from 9 matches (8 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), level on points with Inter and 2 clear of city rivals AS Roma. Cagliari are 10th with 13 points (4 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses) and arrive in Rome after a difficult run. The match is played at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. Lazio are unbeaten in 11 league matches and have the best defensive record in the division, while Cagliari have the second-worst attack.
Lazio have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 17 goals and conceding 9: 6-2 at Sassuolo, 2-1 against Parma, 3-0 at Juventus, 3-1 against Monza and 3-3 against Juve Stabia. More than 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 of those matches and both teams scored in 4 of 5. Cagliari have lost their last 3 (2-4 at AS Roma, 0-2 against Bologna, 0-4 at Monza) and are without a win in 4, conceding 11 goals across that sequence.
Lazio have scored 22 goals (3rd in the league) from 15.46 expected goals and conceded only 7 (1st), with 4 clean sheets. They have created 30 big chances (5th), scored 5 headed goals (1st) and complete 86.8% of their passes (7th). Cagliari have scored 8 goals (17th) from 11.49 expected goals and conceded 13, while averaging 42.4% possession (18th) and facing 18.7 shots per game (3rd most in the league). Cagliari also make 29.8 clearances per game, the highest figure in the division, which reflects how deep they defend.
Lazio are without forward Albert Guðmundsson (injured, 4 appearances). Mattia Zaccagni is the standout performer in this fixture, with 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 matches against Cagliari and 2 goals plus 3 assists in his last 5 matches overall. Gustav Isaksen (3 goals, 1 assist in his last 5), Tijjani Noslin (3 goals, 2 assists), Kenneth Taylor (2 goals, 1 assist) and Nuno Tavares (1 goal, 2 assists) are all in strong form, and goalkeeper Christos Mandas averages a rating of 7.66. Cagliari are missing midfielder Harry Winks and forward Mattia Felici, both injured, and have no players listed among the in-form performers over the last 5 matches.
Lazio are unbeaten in the last 20 meetings between the two clubs, with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5. The most recent encounter in Rome finished 2-0 to Lazio, while the reverse fixture in February ended 0-0 in Cagliari. Lazio have scored first in 9 of the last 10 head-to-head matches and in all 8 of their league matches this season in which a first goal was recorded.
No referee has been confirmed for this match. Lazio average 1.67 yellow cards per game and have stayed under 4.5 total cards in 5 of their last 6 matches; Cagliari average 1.44 and have done so in 9 of their last 10. Total cards in the last 2 head-to-head meetings were 5 and 2. Lazio average 5 corners per game (7th in the league) and Cagliari 4.11 (13th), although Cagliari recorded 8 at AS Roma and 7 at Monza. The last 2 head-to-head meetings produced 9 and 12 corners. Expect around 10 corners and 4 yellow cards.
Lazio dominate the relevant numbers: home advantage, an unbeaten run of 11 matches, the best defensive record in the league and a 20-match unbeaten head-to-head sequence. Cagliari concede a high volume of shots and have lost 3 consecutive matches, which points to sustained pressure on their penalty area. The outside model gives Lazio a 72% chance of winning, with 17% for a draw and 11% for a Cagliari win, and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. That aligns with a home win and a realistic chance of a Lazio clean sheet.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
