LeccevsGenoa
Sun, Nov 1 · 9:00 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 2,234 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 32% | 27.9% | +4.1 pts | 3.40 12/5 | 29.4% |
| Draw | 30% | 31.7% | −1.7 pts | 3.00 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Genoa | 38% | 40.4% | −2.4 pts | 2.35 27/20 | 42.6% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.3%, so this book’s margin is 5.3%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.57 | 63.6% |
| X2 | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| 12 | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| X | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| 2 | 3.10 | 32.3% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 2.25 | 44.4% |
| 2 | 1.57 | 63.6% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| No | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.10 | 90.9% |
| Under | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| Under | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| Under | 1.57 | 63.6% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Under | 1.20 | 83.3% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Lecce goals by Genoa goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 14.4 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Lecce 2 wins · 3 draws · Genoa 5 wins.
- Lecce1–0Genoa
- Genoa0–0Lecce
- Genoa2–1Lecce
- Lecce0–0Genoa
- Genoa2–1Lecce
- Lecce1–0Genoa
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- LecceMore than 2.5 goals5/6
- GenoaLess than 2.5 goals4/5
- LecceFirst to concede4/5
- LecceFirst half loser4/5
- LecceLess than 4.5 cards9/10
Fan poll: both teams to score?
417 votes (third-party poll): yes 82%, no 18%.
Outside model notes
Lecce sit 14th with 9 points and Genoa are 13th with 10, so this is a direct meeting between two sides separated by a single point in the lower-middle part of the table. Both teams have struggled for goals and both have a negative goal difference, which points to a tight, cautious match at Via del Mare. The outside model leans slightly towards the visitors (away win 38%, draw 30%, home win 32%), while the chance of both teams scoring sits at 49%.
Lecce have 2 wins and 3 defeats from their last 5 matches, with the wins coming away at Udinese and at home to Monza. Their recent games have been open: they have scored 3 goals in two of those 5 fixtures but also conceded 2 or more on 3 occasions. The season numbers show a clear identity: 40.6% average possession (20th in the league), 20.6 tackles per game (1st) and 27.5 clearances per game (3rd). They are the league's strongest side in the air, with 5 headed goals (1st), and they also carry a threat from fast breaks (1.9 per game, 3rd).
Genoa have won 3 of their last 5, including home victories over Juventus, Venezia and Fiorentina, but both defeats in that run came away from home and without scoring. Their attacking output is modest: 8 goals scored all season (17th), only 10 big chances created (20th) and no headed goals. Defensively they are compact, with 28.1 clearances per game (2nd), 20 big chances conceded (5th fewest) and 2 clean sheets. They win 52.5% of ground duels (4th), which helps them control the middle of the pitch.
The last 5 meetings are balanced: Lecce 1 win, 2 draws and Genoa 2 wins. Lecce won the most recent meeting at Via del Mare, while the previous meeting in Genoa ended level. Both of those matches were low on clear chances, with the expected goals figures staying modest on both sides, and neither team has dominated the other for long spells.
Lecce are without 4 midfielders: Lassana Coulibaly, Medon Berisha, Santiago Pierotti and Ivan Ilić. That removes depth and physical presence from the centre of the pitch, an area where Genoa are strong in duels. Genoa are missing only the forward Elias Havel.
Lecce average 1.75 yellow cards per game and have stayed under 4.5 cards in 8 of their last 9 matches. Genoa average 2.22 yellow cards per game and have collected 20 in total, the second-highest figure in the league, so the card count is likely to be driven by the visitors. On corners, Lecce average 4.5 and Genoa 4.33, and Lecce have recorded fewer than 10.5 corners in 4 of their last 5 matches. The 2 head-to-head meetings produced 7 and 10 corners respectively, so a total around the mid-single figures is realistic.
Genoa's edge in ground duels and their tighter defensive structure give them a small advantage, which matches the model's away win probability of 38%. Lecce's aerial strength and direct running will create chances, and with 49% for both teams to score, a clean sheet for either side is not secure. Given Lecce's 4 absent midfielders and Genoa's poor away scoring record, a narrow away win with goals at both ends is the most likely outcome. Predicted total: 4 yellow cards and 9 corners.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
