AtalantavsParma
Mon, Nov 2 · 11:45 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 1,599 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 65% | 63.6% | +1.4 pts | 1.50 1/2 | 66.7% |
| Draw | 21% | 21.2% | −0.2 pts | 4.50 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Parma | 14% | 15.3% | −1.3 pts | 6.25 21/4 | 16.0% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 104.9%, so this book’s margin is 4.9%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.13 | 88.9% |
| X2 | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| 12 | 1.18 | 84.6% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 1.95 | 51.2% |
| X | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| 2 | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.18 | 84.6% |
| 2 | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| No | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.03 | 97.1% |
| Under | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| Under | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| Under | 2.30 | 43.5% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Under | 1.50 | 66.7% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Atalanta goals by Parma goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Atalanta 7 wins · 1 draw · Parma 2 wins.
- Atalanta4–0Parma
- Parma1–1Atalanta
- Atalanta2–3Parma
- Parma1–3Atalanta
- Parma4–1Atalanta
- Parma2–5Atalanta
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- BothNo wins4
- AtalantaWithout clean sheet9
- BothMore than 2.5 goals5/6
- AtalantaBoth teams scoring5/6
- ParmaFirst to concede8/10
- AtalantaLess than 4.5 cards8/10
- ParmaLess than 4.5 cards6/8
- ParmaLess than 10.5 corners4/5
When these two meet
- ParmaWithout clean sheet11
- BothMore than 2.5 goals9/10
- BothBoth teams scoring5/6
- AtalantaFirst to score6/7
Fan poll: both teams to score?
199 votes (third-party poll): yes 65%, no 35%.
Outside model notes
Atalanta are the clear favourites. They have home advantage, stronger attacking numbers and a recent dominant head-to-head win, while Parma have the league's lowest scoring output. Parma's late scoring and Atalanta's defensive issues mean the visitors can cause problems, but the balance favours a home win.
The outside model makes Atalanta 2-0 Parma the most likely scoreline at 11.3%, followed by Atalanta 1-0 Parma at 10.2% and Atalanta 2-1 Parma at 10.1%. It gives a 65% home win, 21% draw and 14% away win, with both teams to score at 52%.
Charles De Ketelaere is the obvious attacking reference for Atalanta after his player-of-the-match display in the last head-to-head. Atalanta are without Scamacca, Raspadori, Kessié, Bellanova, Kossounou and Pompei, all injured. Parma are without Nesta Elphege, also injured.
Atalanta have won 2 of the last 5 meetings, with 1 draw and 2 Parma wins. The most recent meeting was a clear Atalanta home win, while the previous meeting in Parma ended level. Parma have not kept a clean sheet in 11 head-to-heads, and both teams have scored in 5 of the last 6.
Atalanta are without a win in four and without a clean sheet in nine; both teams scored in five of their last six. They score most in the first 15 and 31-45 minutes, and concede most in 16-30, 46-60 and 76-90. Parma are without a win in four and have conceded first in eight of ten; they score 60% of league goals in 76-90 and concede most in 16-30, 61-75 and 76-90.
Atalanta average 46.2% possession, create 19 big chances and convert 47.4% of them, the second-best rate in the league; they have underperformed expected goals by 3.10 and allow 19.56 shots per game, the highest in the league. Parma average 42.2% possession, the second-lowest, and 3.33 corners per game, the second-lowest; they convert only 15.4% of big chances and have overperformed expected goals by 2.37.
Atalanta are 12th with 11 points from 9 matches. Parma are 19th with 5 points. Atalanta can move closer to mid-table, while Parma need points to climb out of the relegation zone.
No referee is listed in the available data. Atalanta average 1.0 yellow card per game and Parma 1.44; Atalanta have stayed under 4.5 cards in 8 of 10, Parma in 6 of 8, and the head-to-head in 8 of 8. Corner averages are modest: Atalanta 3.78 and Parma 3.33, with Parma staying under 10.5 corners in 4 of 5.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
