JuventusvsSSC Napoli
Sun, Nov 1 · 11:45 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 7,643 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 40% | 42.3% | −2.3 pts | 2.25 5/4 | 44.4% |
| Draw | 29% | 29.7% | −0.7 pts | 3.20 11/5 | 31.3% |
| Napoli | 31% | 28.0% | +3.0 pts | 3.40 12/5 | 29.4% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.1%, so this book’s margin is 5.1%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| X2 | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| 12 | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.88 | 34.8% |
| X | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| 2 | 3.75 | 26.7% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| 2 | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| No | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.06 | 94.1% |
| Under | 10.00 | 10.0% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| Under | 3.50 | 28.6% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Under | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 3.50 | 28.6% |
| Under | 1.30 | 76.9% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Juventus goals by Napoli goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Juventus 2 wins · 2 draws · Napoli 6 wins.
- Juventus3–0Napoli
- Napoli2–1Juventus
- Napoli2–1Juventus
- Juventus0–0Napoli
- Napoli2–1Juventus
- Juventus1–0Napoli
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- NapoliNo losses3
- NapoliWithout clean sheet5
- NapoliMore than 2.5 goals5/6
- NapoliBoth teams scoring4/5
- NapoliFirst to score7/8
- JuventusFirst to concede5/7
- JuventusFirst half loser6/7
- JuventusLess than 4.5 cards5/5
- NapoliLess than 4.5 cards8/10
- NapoliLess than 10.5 corners7/9
When these two meet
- NapoliWithout clean sheet3
- BothMore than 2.5 goals4/5
Fan poll: both teams to score?
1,670 votes (third-party poll): yes 91%, no 9%.
Outside model notes
Juventus and SSC Napoli meet at the Allianz Stadium in Turin level on 14 points, with Napoli 6th and Juventus 8th separated only by goal difference (Napoli +6, Juventus +1). Both sides have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 3 in the league, so this is a direct contest for position in the upper-middle group. The outside model makes Juventus favourites at 40%, with the draw at 29% and a Napoli win at 31%, and it gives a 52% chance that both teams score. Home advantage is the main factor separating two closely matched teams.
Juventus have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches. Their home results are the concern: a 0-3 defeat to Lazio in Turin and a 2-2 draw with Stade Rennais, while both wins came away from home, at Lecce and at Celta Vigo. They have conceded first in 5 of their last 7 matches and were losing at half-time in 6 of 7, a pattern that puts early pressure on their defence.
Napoli's last 5 matches brought a 4-1 win at Monza, a 3-3 draw with AS Roma, a 4-3 win over Bodø/Glimt, a 0-1 defeat at Venezia and a 1-3 defeat at Villarreal. They have scored in all 5 and both teams have scored in 4 of them. They have gone 5 matches without a clean sheet and have conceded 3 in each of their last 2 away matches. Napoli have also scored first in 7 of their last 8.
Juventus have scored 11 and conceded 10, with 12.78 expected goals and only 19 big chances created (14th in the league). Their defensive numbers are strong: 4 clean sheets (2nd), 5 big chances conceded (fewest in the league) and 9.1 shots against per game (fewest). They average 59% possession (4th), 87.2% pass accuracy (4th), 34 penalty area entries per game (2nd) and 7.7 corners per game (1st). Napoli have scored 17 and conceded 11, with 28 big chances created (7th) but 18 missed, and 16.88 expected goals against 17 scored.
Juventus are without Manuel Locatelli, Khéphren Thuram, Kenan Yıldız, Francisco Conceição, Nicolás González, Zeki Çelik, Arek Milik, Kamil Grabara and Jeff Ekhator, a list that removes much of their midfield and wide creativity. Locatelli was the player of the match in the most recent meeting between the clubs. Napoli are missing Alessandro Buongiorno, Benoît Badiashile, Leonardo Spinazzola, David Neres, Alisson Santos and Costantino Favasuli, leaving them short in central defence and on the left side.
Napoli have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, with 1 draw and 1 Juventus win. The most recent match in Turin ended 3-0 to Juventus in January 2026, after Napoli had won 2-1 in Naples in December 2025. Both teams have scored in only 1 of the last 2 meetings, and Napoli have failed to keep a clean sheet in the last 3.
There is no appointed referee data available, so the card and corner outlook is based on team and head-to-head trends. Juventus commit 110 fouls (3rd most in the league) but collect only 1.1 yellow cards per game (4th fewest), while Napoli have the fewest fouls (74) and fewest yellow cards (7, 0.8 per game) in Serie A. Head-to-head meetings have produced fewer than 4.5 cards in 4 of the last 5 and fewer than 10.5 corners in 9 of 9, which points to a controlled match with a low card count and a moderate corner total.
Juventus have the stronger defensive profile and home advantage, and the model's 40% home win makes them the clear pick in a match where the draw (29%) and Napoli (31%) remain realistic outcomes. Napoli's record of scoring in every recent match and the 52% chance that both teams score suggest the visitors will find the net, while Juventus' habit of conceding first and their late scoring (6 of 11 goals in the final 15 minutes) point to a narrow home win. A close, competitive game with both teams scoring fits the model data best.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
