BolognavsMonza
Sat, Oct 31 · 7:00 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 6,593 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 55% | 56.4% | −1.4 pts | 1.67 67/100 | 59.9% |
| Draw | 24% | 24.8% | −0.8 pts | 3.80 14/5 | 26.3% |
| Monza | 21% | 18.8% | +2.2 pts | 5.00 4/1 | 20.0% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 106.2%, so this book’s margin is 6.2%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.17 | 85.7% |
| X2 | 2.15 | 46.5% |
| 12 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| X | 2.30 | 43.5% |
| 2 | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| 2 | 3.75 | 26.7% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| No | 1.95 | 51.3% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.05 | 95.2% |
| Under | 11.00 | 9.1% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| Under | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Under | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| Under | 1.40 | 71.4% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Bologna goals by Monza goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Bologna 4 wins · 2 draws · Monza 1 win.
- Bologna3–1Monza
- Bologna4–0Monza
- Monza1–2Bologna
- Bologna0–0Monza
- Monza0–0Bologna
- Bologna0–1Monza
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- MonzaMore than 2.5 goals8/8
- BolognaBoth teams scoring4/5
- MonzaBoth teams scoring8/9
- BolognaFirst to score5/5
- BolognaLess than 4.5 cards6/8
- MonzaLess than 4.5 cards5/6
- BolognaLess than 10.5 corners5/6
When these two meet
- BolognaWins3
- BolognaNo losses5
- MonzaWithout clean sheet3
- BothMore than 4.5 cards5/7
- BothLess than 10.5 corners6/7
Fan poll: both teams to score?
1,073 votes (third-party poll): yes 81%, no 19%.
Outside model notes
Bologna are the stronger side at home and the outside model gives them a 55% win probability. They have scored first in each of their last 5 matches, while Monza rank 19th for goals conceded and have allowed 27 opponent big chances this season. Bologna's 23 big chances created and Monza's recent defensive record support a home win.
The outside model gives Bologna a 55% chance of winning, with the draw at 24% and Monza at 21%. Both teams to score has a 54% chance, and the most likely scorelines are Bologna 1-1 Monza (11.7%), Bologna 1-0 Monza (10.1%) and Bologna 2-1 Monza (10.0%).
Samuel Mbangula is Bologna's form player, with the strongest recent average rating in the squad (8.05) and goals in recent matches. Gustavo Varela is Monza's main threat, with goals and an assist in the last 5. Bologna are without Riccardo Orsolini, Roberto Piccoli and Emil Holm through injury, while Lorenzo De Silvestri and Jay Enem are doubtful; Monza miss Jan Ziółkowski and Yvan Maye through injury.
Bologna have won 3 of the last 5 meetings and are unbeaten in 5. The last two head-to-head matches both ended in Bologna wins, and Monza have not kept a clean sheet in the last 3 meetings.
Bologna have won 3 of their last 5 (1 draw, 1 defeat) and have scored first in each of those 5 matches. They score most often in the opening 15 minutes, 46-60 and 76-90, but concede most in 61-75 and 76-90. Monza have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5, scoring in each match and conceding in each; they score most in 31-45 and 46-60, and concede most in 1-15 and 61-75.
Bologna sit 11th with 11 points and have a level goal difference; their expected goals are close to their actual output. They have created 23 big chances, average 46.2% possession and 3.89 corners per game, but have committed 118 fouls, the second-most in the league. Monza are 16th with 7 points and rank 19th for goals conceded; they have created 29 big chances but missed 19, average 44% possession and 4.00 corners per game, and have underperformed their expected goals.
Bologna sit 11th with 11 points, while Monza are 16th with 7 points. A win would help Bologna move towards mid-table stability, while Monza need points to create distance from the bottom places.
The referee is not named in the available data. Bologna average 1.78 yellow cards per game and Monza 1.56; both have stayed under 4.5 cards in most recent matches, though head-to-head meetings have often gone above 4.5. Bologna average 3.89 corners and Monza 4.00, and both have stayed under 10.5 corners in most recent games.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
