FrosinonevsLecce
Thu, Oct 29 · kicked off 10:30 AM PT · Referee Rosario Abisso
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 33,479 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 63% | 54.6% | +8.4 pts | 1.73 73/100 | 57.8% |
| Draw | 21% | 23.6% | −2.6 pts | 4.00 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Lecce | 16% | 21.8% | −5.8 pts | 4.33 10/3 | 23.1% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.9%, so this book’s margin is 5.9%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| X2 | 2.05 | 48.8% |
| 12 | 1.22 | 81.8% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| X | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| 2 | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.33 | 75.0% |
| 2 | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| No | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 98.5% |
| Under | 21.00 | 4.8% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.11 | 90.0% |
| Under | 6.50 | 15.4% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| Under | 3.20 | 31.3% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Under | 1.91 | 52.4% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Frosinone goals by Lecce goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Frosinone 2 wins · 4 draws · Lecce 4 wins.
- Frosinone1–1Lecce
- Lecce2–1Frosinone
- Lecce1–0Frosinone
- Frosinone0–0Lecce
- Frosinone0–3Lecce
- Lecce2–2Frosinone
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- FrosinoneWithout clean sheet4
- BothMore than 2.5 goals4/5
- FrosinoneBoth teams scoring6/8
- FrosinoneFirst to score6/7
- LecceFirst to concede5/7
- FrosinoneFirst half winner5/7
- LecceFirst half loser5/7
- LecceLess than 4.5 cards9/10
- LecceLess than 10.5 corners8/10
When these two meet
- LecceNo losses7
- FrosinoneWithout clean sheet3
Fan poll: both teams to score?
5,988 votes (third-party poll): yes 84%, no 16%.
Outside model notes
Frosinone are favoured to win. They have won 3 of their last 5 and their last 3 at home, while Lecce are missing four midfielders and a defender. Frosinone's big-chance conversion and fast breaks should give them an advantage, although Lecce's head-to-head record is stronger.
The outside model gives Frosinone a 63% chance of winning, a 21% chance of a draw and a 16% chance for Lecce; both teams to score is at 62%. The most likely scorelines are Frosinone 2-1 Lecce (10.0%), Frosinone 1-1 Lecce (9.8%) and Frosinone 2-0 Lecce (8.9%).
Giacomo Calò has 3 goals in his last 5 for Frosinone, and Romano Schmid has 2 goals and 3 assists. Lecce goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone has averaged 7.8 and 6 saves per game in this fixture. Frosinone miss Florian Grillitsch (injured); Lecce miss Lassana Coulibaly, Medon Berisha, Santiago Pierotti and Ivan Ilić (all injured) plus Kialonda Gaspar (suspended).
Lecce are unbeaten in the last 7 meetings, with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5. The last two meetings produced a draw and a Lecce win.
Frosinone's last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; they scored in 4 and conceded in 4, and they have won their last 3 home matches. Lecce's last 5: 2 wins, 3 losses; they scored in 3 and conceded in 4. Frosinone do most scoring before the 31st minute and concede most in the 31st-45th, while Lecce score most in the first 15 minutes and concede most between the 16th and 30th.
Frosinone rank 5th for goals scored and 9th for fewest goals conceded; they have the league's best big-chance conversion (59.1%) and most fast breaks per game (2.125). Lecce rank 14th for goals scored and 12th for fewest goals conceded; they lead the league for headers scored but have the lowest average possession (40.6%).
Frosinone sit 7th on 14 points, five points and seven places above Lecce, who are 14th on 9. A home win would strengthen Frosinone's push towards the top six, while Lecce need points to move clear of the lower half.
Rosario Abisso averages 5.2 yellow cards and 0.38 red cards per game. Frosinone commit the most fouls in the league (125) and average 2 yellow cards per game; Lecce average 1.75. Frosinone average 5.875 corners per game and Lecce 4.5, with Lecce staying under 10.5 corners in 8 of their last 10.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
