FiorentinavsAtalanta
Thu, Oct 29 · kicked off 12:45 PM PT · Referee Federico La Penna
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 44,760 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 48% | 40.9% | +7.1 pts | 2.30 13/10 | 43.5% |
| Draw | 25% | 25.4% | −0.4 pts | 3.70 27/10 | 27.0% |
| Atalanta | 27% | 33.6% | −6.6 pts | 2.80 9/5 | 35.7% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 106.2%, so this book’s margin is 6.2%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| X2 | 1.57 | 63.6% |
| 12 | 1.29 | 77.8% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| X | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| 2 | 3.10 | 32.3% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.73 | 57.9% |
| 2 | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| No | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 97.6% |
| Under | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.14 | 87.5% |
| Under | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Under | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| Under | 1.73 | 57.9% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Fiorentina goals by Atalanta goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Fiorentina 4 wins · 3 draws · Atalanta 3 wins.
- Fiorentina1–1Atalanta
- Atalanta2–0Fiorentina
- Fiorentina1–0Atalanta
- Atalanta3–2Fiorentina
- Atalanta2–3Fiorentina
- Atalanta4–1Fiorentina
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- FiorentinaLosses3
- FiorentinaNo wins4
- AtalantaNo wins3
- FiorentinaWithout clean sheet4
- AtalantaWithout clean sheet8
- FiorentinaMore than 2.5 goals9/10
- AtalantaMore than 2.5 goals4/5
- FiorentinaBoth teams scoring6/7
- AtalantaBoth teams scoring4/5
- AtalantaFirst to concede5/7
- FiorentinaLess than 4.5 cards5/7
- AtalantaLess than 4.5 cards8/9
Fan poll: both teams to score?
9,196 votes (third-party poll): yes 91%, no 9%.
Outside model notes
Fiorentina are favoured at home despite their poor run, with the model giving them a clear edge and Atalanta missing several important players. Fiorentina's main risk is a defence without Marin Pongračić and with Luca Ranieri doubtful, while Atalanta's main threat comes from Charles De Ketelaere and Nikola Krstović. I expect Fiorentina to win narrowly.
The outside model makes Fiorentina the favourite (48% home win, 25% draw, 27% away win). The most likely scorelines are Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta (11.4%), Fiorentina 2-1 Atalanta (9.5%) and Fiorentina 2-0 Atalanta (7.0%), with both teams to score at 64%.
Charles De Ketelaere has been Atalanta's standout against Fiorentina (average rating 7.36, 1 goal, 3 assists in his last 5 appearances against them), and Nikola Krstović is their form player (5 goals, 2 assists in his last 5 matches). Fiorentina are without Marin Pongračić (injured) and Luca Ranieri is doubtful (injured). Atalanta miss Thomas Pompei, Odilon Kossounou, Sead Kolašinac, Raoul Bellanova, Franck Kessié, Giacomo Raspadori and Gianluca Scamacca, all injured.
The last two meetings produced one draw and one Atalanta win. Fiorentina have scored first in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and recent head-to-head matches have stayed below 4.5 cards and 10.5 corners.
Fiorentina have lost 3 of their last 5 and are without a win in 4. They have not kept a clean sheet in 4 and do most of their scoring between minutes 61-75, but concede most often between 76-90. Atalanta are without a win in 3 and have gone 8 matches without a clean sheet. They score most often in the first 15 minutes but concede most often between 76-90 and 16-30.
Fiorentina have scored 9 and conceded 19, with no clean sheets and the league's 18th-ranked big-chance creation. Atalanta have scored 14 and conceded 15, converting 44.4% of big chances (rank 3) but underperforming expected goals by 2.10. Both teams average around 45% possession.
Fiorentina are 19th with 4 points, one point behind 17th-placed Udinese. Atalanta are 12th with 10 points. A home win would lift Fiorentina out of the relegation places, while Atalanta can close on the top half with a win.
Federico La Penna averages 5.0 yellow cards and 0.30 red cards per game. Fiorentina average 2.125 yellow cards and 4.75 corners per game; Atalanta average 0.875 yellow cards and 4.0 corners. Both teams have kept below 4.5 cards in most recent matches, and head-to-head meetings have stayed below 10.5 corners.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
