Olympique LyonnaisvsAngers
Sun, Nov 1 · 8:15 AM PT · Referee Marc Bollengier
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 4,991 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 70% | 67.6% | +2.4 pts | 1.40 2/5 | 71.4% |
| Draw | 19% | 18.9% | +0.1 pts | 5.00 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Angers | 11% | 13.5% | −2.5 pts | 7.00 6/1 | 14.3% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.7%, so this book’s margin is 5.7%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.10 | 90.9% |
| X2 | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| 12 | 1.17 | 85.7% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 1.83 | 54.5% |
| X | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| 2 | 6.50 | 15.4% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.14 | 87.5% |
| 2 | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| No | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 97.6% |
| Under | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.17 | 85.7% |
| Under | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| Under | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| Under | 1.57 | 63.6% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Lyon goals by Angers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Lyon 8 wins · 1 draw · Angers 1 win.
- Angers0–0Lyon
- Lyon1–0Angers
- Lyon2–0Angers
- Angers0–3Lyon
- Angers1–3Lyon
- Lyon5–0Angers
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- AngersNo wins3
- LyonWithout clean sheet5
- LyonMore than 2.5 goals6/7
- LyonFirst to concede4/5
- LyonLess than 4.5 cards8/10
- AngersLess than 4.5 cards5/6
When these two meet
- LyonNo losses7
- LyonNo goals conceded4
- LyonFirst to score6/7
- BothLess than 4.5 cards7/7
Fan poll: both teams to score?
677 votes (third-party poll): yes 65%, no 35%.
Outside model notes
Olympique Lyonnais sit 5th in Ligue 1 with 14 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats), while Angers are 14th with 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats). The match is played at the Groupama Stadium in Lyon, where the hosts can stay close to the top four with a win. Angers arrive after 3 matches without a victory and with the joint-worst defensive record outside the bottom three. The outside model gives Olympique Lyonnais a 70% chance of winning, a 19% chance of a draw and an 11% chance of an away win, with a 50% chance that both teams score.
Olympique Lyonnais have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches in all competitions, including defeats at Paris Saint-Germain (0-2) and at TSG Hoffenheim (0-3). They have failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 matches and have conceded first in 4 of their last 5. Their matches remain open: 6 of their last 7 have produced 3 or more goals. Mohamed Ouédraogo, Loïs Openda, Nicolás Tagliafico and Pavel Šulc are all out injured, which limits their attacking options.
Angers have 1 win in their last 5 (2 draws, 2 defeats) and are 3 matches without a win. Results have swung sharply: goalless draws with Lorient and at Le Havre, but a 2-5 home defeat to Olympique de Marseille and a 1-5 loss at Stade Brestois. They have kept 3 clean sheets this season, the same number as Olympique Lyonnais. Goalkeeper Anthony Lopes is their best-rated player over the last 5 matches (7.78 average rating); Emmanuel Biumla is injured and Amine El Ouazzani is doubtful.
Olympique Lyonnais are unbeaten in the last 7 meetings and have kept a clean sheet in 4 of them. The last 2 meetings ended in a 1-0 win for Lyon at home and a 0-0 draw at Angers. Lyon scored first in 6 of those 7 matches, and the head-to-head series has consistently been low on cards, with fewer than 4.5 in all 7.
Olympique Lyonnais have 13 goals scored and 7 conceded (3rd fewest in the league), with 12.12 expected goals and 35% of big chances converted. Angers have 9 goals from 11.92 expected goals, an overperformance of 2.92, and 15 conceded. Angers face 16.375 shots per game (2nd most in Ligue 1) and have allowed 28 big chances, but they win 6.375 corners per game (3rd most) and have scored 4 headed goals (2nd most).
No referee has been confirmed, so card figures cannot be linked to an official. Olympique Lyonnais average 1.25 yellow cards per game and Angers 1.5, and all 7 recent head-to-head meetings stayed below 4.5 cards. Olympique Lyonnais win 4.25 corners per game, Angers 6.375, and the last 2 meetings produced 10 and 11 corners respectively.
The model strongly favours Olympique Lyonnais, who have the better defensive record and a long unbeaten run in this fixture, while Angers’ habit of conceding chances suggests the hosts will find scoring opportunities. Both teams to score carries a 50% chance, so an Angers goal is a realistic part of the outcome. The prediction is a home win, with a moderate card count and a corner total around 10.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
