LillevsRC Lens
Fri, Oct 30 · 1:05 PM PT · kicks off in 8h · Referee Jérôme Brisard
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 24,118 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 37% | 35.3% | +1.7 pts | 2.70 17/10 | 37.0% |
| Draw | 29% | 28.0% | +1.0 pts | 3.40 12/5 | 29.4% |
| Lens | 34% | 36.7% | −2.7 pts | 2.60 8/5 | 38.5% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 104.9%, so this book’s margin is 4.9%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| X2 | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| 12 | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| X | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| 2 | 3.20 | 31.3% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.83 | 54.5% |
| 2 | 1.83 | 54.5% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| No | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.06 | 94.1% |
| Under | 10.00 | 10.0% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| Under | 3.50 | 28.6% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Under | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| Under | 1.33 | 75.0% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Lille goals by Lens goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 13.7 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Lille 5 wins · 2 draws · Lens 3 wins.
- Lille3–0Lens
- Lens3–0Lille
- Lille1–0Lens
- Lens0–2Lille
- Lille2–1Lens
- Lens1–1Lille
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- LilleNo wins4
- LilleWithout clean sheet4
- LensWithout clean sheet11
- LensMore than 2.5 goals7/8
- LilleBoth teams scoring5/7
- LensBoth teams scoring6/8
- LilleFirst to concede5/7
- LensFirst to concede7/9
- LensFirst half loser5/7
- LilleLess than 4.5 cards6/8
- LensLess than 4.5 cards5/6
- LilleLess than 10.5 corners9/9
Fan poll: both teams to score?
5,167 votes (third-party poll): yes 90%, no 10%.
Outside model notes
Lille sit 3rd in Ligue 1 with 15 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss), while RC Lens are 7th on 13 points (4 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses). The match takes place at the Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy in Lille. The outside model makes Lille narrow favourites (37% home win, 29% draw, 34% away win) and rates both teams to score at 56%. This is a meeting between the league's strongest defence and one of its most productive attacks.
Lille are without a win in 4 matches across all competitions (3 draws, 1 loss) and have conceded in each of those 4 games. Their league defensive record remains the best in Ligue 1 (6 goals conceded, 4 clean sheets), built on 28.5 clearances per game (2nd in the league) and a compact block. Attacking output is modest: 11 goals scored, 19 big chances created and only 3 corners per game, the lowest figure in the division.
Lens have won 3 of their last 5 matches across all competitions, including league wins over Paris FC (2-1) and Olympique Lyonnais (2-1). They are the league's most productive crossing side (58 accurate crosses, 6.5 corners per game, both ranked 1st) and have scored 6 headed goals, also a league high. The weakness is defensive: no clean sheet in 11 matches, 12 goals conceded and 17 big chances missed from 30 created.
Lille have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, with Lens winning 1 and no draws. Both of the most recent matches finished as 3-0 home wins: Lille in April 2026 and Lens in September 2025. Lille have scored first in 5 of the last 6 meetings. Fewer than 10.5 corners have been recorded in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches.
Lille have the stronger defensive numbers (6 conceded, 4 clean sheets) but a lower attacking output (11 scored, 11.29 expected goals). Lens carry the greater attacking threat (16 scored, 15.20 expected goals, 30 big chances created) yet rank 15th for big chances missed and have kept no clean sheet. Lille average 48.4% possession, Lens 52.3%, so Lens are likely to see more of the ball away from home.
Lille are without Tiago Santos, Hamza Igamane and Ayase Ueda through injury, with Tanguy Nianzou suspended after a red card and Osame Sahraoui doubtful. Lens are missing Maik Nawrocki, Ismaelo Ganiou, Jhoanner Chávez, Abdallah Sima and Odsonne Édouard, which limits their forward options. Florian Thauvin has 1 goal and 5 assists in his last 5 matches for Lens (average rating 8.34), while Alexsandro Ribeiro has averaged 7.15 against this opponent.
Jérôme Brisard averages 3.8 yellow cards and 0.30 red cards per match. Lille have seen fewer than 4.5 cards in 6 of their last 8 matches, and Lens in 5 of their last 6. Lille average 3 corners per game, Lens 6.5, and fewer than 10.5 corners have been recorded in all 9 of Lille's recent matches and in 5 of Lens's last 6.
The model's 37% home win makes Lille the most likely winner, but the 34% for Lens and the 56% both-teams-to-score figure point to a close match with goals for both sides. Lille's defensive strength against Lens's crossing and set-piece threat keeps this tight, and a narrow home win is the most consistent outcome.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
