Rayo VallecanovsCelta Vigo
Sat, Oct 31 · 8:15 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 6,006 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 40% | 39.4% | +0.6 pts | 2.40 7/5 | 41.7% |
| Draw | 30% | 29.1% | +0.9 pts | 3.25 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Celta | 30% | 31.5% | −1.5 pts | 3.00 2/1 | 33.3% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.8%, so this book’s margin is 5.8%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| X2 | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| 12 | 1.33 | 75.0% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| X | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| 2 | 3.75 | 26.7% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| 2 | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| No | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.07 | 93.3% |
| Under | 8.50 | 11.8% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| Under | 3.20 | 31.3% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| Under | 1.73 | 57.9% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Under | 1.25 | 80.0% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Rayo Vallecano goals by Celta goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 14.1 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Rayo Vallecano 2 wins · 5 draws · Celta 3 wins.
- Celta3–0Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano1–1Celta
- Celta1–2Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano2–1Celta
- Celta0–0Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano0–0Celta
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- CeltaNo losses3
- Rayo VallecanoWithout clean sheet16
- Rayo VallecanoBoth teams scoring9/10
- Rayo VallecanoFirst to concede5/7
- Rayo VallecanoMore than 4.5 cards5/5
- CeltaLess than 4.5 cards4/5
- CeltaLess than 10.5 corners6/6
When these two meet
- Rayo VallecanoWithout clean sheet4
- BothMore than 4.5 cards4/5
Fan poll: both teams to score?
1,240 votes (third-party poll): yes 87%, no 13%.
Outside model notes
Rayo Vallecano are the narrow favourites at home, with a 40% win probability compared with 30% for a draw and 30% for Celta Vigo. Rayo's possession and chance creation can test a Celta side that has the best defensive record in the league but limited scoring output. I expect a tight home win.
The outside model's most likely scorelines are Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Celta Vigo (14.1%), Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Celta Vigo (11.7%) and Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Celta Vigo (11.0%). Both teams scoring is given a 47% chance.
Unai López is Rayo Vallecano's in-form player with a 7.53 average rating in his last 5 matches. Javi Rodríguez is Celta Vigo's main threat with 3 goals, 1 assist and an 8.23 average rating in his last 5. Rayo are without Augusto Batalla, Luiz Felipe and Andrei Rațiu (all injured) and Pathé Ismaël Ciss (suspended for accumulated yellow cards). Celta are without Jones El-Abdellaoui, Miguel Román, Carl Starfelt, Borja Iglesias and Álvaro Núñez (all injured).
The last two meetings produced a Celta Vigo 3-0 home win and a 1-1 draw at Rayo Vallecano. Over the last 5 meetings, Rayo have 2 wins, 2 draws and Celta have 1 win. Rayo have not kept a clean sheet in the last 4 head-to-heads, and both teams have had more than 4.5 cards in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Rayo Vallecano are without a win in their last 4 available matches (3 draws, 1 defeat) and have conceded in each. Celta Vigo are unbeaten in 3 and have won 2 of their last 4 available matches. Rayo score most often in the opening 15 minutes and at the start of the second half, while Celta score most in the 31-45 minute period and concede most in the 16-30 minute period.
Rayo Vallecano have scored 12 goals and conceded 20, with no clean sheets and 16 opponent shots per game. Celta Vigo have the league's best defensive record (7 conceded, 5 clean sheets) but only 10 goals scored from 9.18 expected goals. Rayo average 51.9% possession; Celta average 49.2%.
Rayo Vallecano sit 16th on 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses; 12-20 goal difference). Celta Vigo are 9th on 12 points (2 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses; 10-7). A Rayo win would move them level with Celta, while a Celta win would strengthen their top-half position.
The referee is not named in the available data. Rayo Vallecano have had more than 4.5 cards in 5 of their last 5 matches, while Celta Vigo have stayed under 4.5 cards in 4 of their last 5. Rayo average 5.3 corners per game; Celta average 2.8 and have had fewer than 10.5 corners in 6 of their last 6 matches.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
