VillarrealvsEspanyol
Fri, Oct 30 · 1:00 PM PT · kicks off in 7h · Referee José María Sánchez Martínez
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 33,679 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 63% | 67.1% | −4.1 pts | 1.40 2/5 | 71.4% |
| Draw | 20% | 17.9% | +2.1 pts | 5.25 17/4 | 19.0% |
| Espanyol | 17% | 15.0% | +2.0 pts | 6.25 21/4 | 16.0% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 106.5%, so this book’s margin is 6.5%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.13 | 88.9% |
| X2 | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| 12 | 1.17 | 85.7% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| X | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| 2 | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.14 | 87.5% |
| 2 | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| No | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 98.0% |
| Under | 19.00 | 5.3% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.13 | 88.9% |
| Under | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Under | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Under | 1.80 | 55.6% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Villarreal goals by Espanyol goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Villarreal 8 wins · 1 draw · Espanyol 1 win.
- Villarreal4–1Espanyol
- Espanyol0–2Villarreal
- Villarreal1–0Espanyol
- Espanyol1–2Villarreal
- Villarreal4–2Espanyol
- Espanyol0–1Villarreal
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- EspanyolLosses3
- EspanyolNo wins6
- EspanyolWithout clean sheet6
- VillarrealMore than 2.5 goals8/10
- EspanyolBoth teams scoring5/6
- EspanyolMore than 4.5 cards10/10
When these two meet
- VillarrealWins7
- VillarrealNo losses8
- EspanyolWithout clean sheet7
- VillarrealFirst to score5/7
- BothMore than 10.5 corners6/8
Fan poll: both teams to score?
5,284 votes (third-party poll): yes 80%, no 20%.
Outside model notes
Villarreal sit 10th in the table with 12 points (3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses), while Espanyol are 18th with 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses). The outside model makes the hosts clear favourites: 63% home win, 20% draw, 17% away win, with a 57% chance that both teams score. The recent head-to-head record is one-sided, with Villarreal unbeaten in the last 8 meetings between the clubs.
Villarreal have won 3 of their last 5 matches in all competitions, with 1 draw and 1 defeat, and they have scored in 4 of those 5. Their season profile is built on control: 60.6% average possession (2nd in the league), 32 big chances created (3rd) and 7.3 corners per game (1st). They have scored 15 goals from 21.03 expected goals, the largest overperformance in the division, though they have missed 21 big chances. Midfield options are reduced, with Pape Gueye suspended and Carlos Romero and Nathan-Dylan Saliba injured, while Ilias Akhomach is doubtful.
Espanyol are without a win in 6 matches and have lost their last 3, keeping no clean sheet in that run. They average 46.3% possession and only 2.5 corners per game (20th in the league), and they have conceded 6 goals in the 76th to 90th minute, 42.9% of their total. Their attacking threat is real but narrow: Roberto Fernández has 6 goals from 4.10 expected goals, Javier Hernández leads the league for assists with 6, and Edu Expósito has averaged a rating of 7.23. They convert 50% of their big chances (3rd) but have created only 16 of them (15th), and goalkeeper Ángel Fortuño has averaged a rating of 7.67 across the last 5 matches.
Villarreal have won the last 5 meetings and are unbeaten in 8, with Espanyol failing to keep a clean sheet in 7 of those matches. Villarreal have scored first in 5 of the last 7 encounters, and Ayoze Pérez has 3 goals and 1 assist against Espanyol at an average rating of 7.4. These fixtures also tend to produce corners, with more than 10.5 in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
The possession and territory numbers favour Villarreal strongly: 145.4 successful final third passes per game (2nd) and 31.4 penalty area entries per game (2nd), against 68.7 and 26.3 for Espanyol. Espanyol compensate with a deeper block, averaging 28 clearances per game (2nd) and 16.3 tackles per game, but they win only 43.8% of ground duels (20th). Villarreal have kept just 1 clean sheet and allow 11.7 opposition shots per game, which supports the 57% both-teams-to-score figure.
Espanyol are the most-booked side in the league with 32 yellow cards (3.2 per game) and the most fouls committed (162), and they have gone over 4.5 cards in 10 of 10 matches. Villarreal are far calmer with 19 yellow cards (1.9 per game) and 109 fouls committed. On corners, Villarreal rank 1st at 7.3 per game and Espanyol rank 20th at 2.5 per game. No referee has been confirmed in the available data, so the card projection is based on team behaviour alone.
Villarreal's control of possession, chance creation and set-piece volume gives them a clear edge, and their recent dominance in this fixture supports the 63% home win probability. Espanyol's limited but efficient finishing and Villarreal's single clean sheet point to the visitors scoring once, which fits the 57% both-teams-to-score reading. The model's probabilities and the head-to-head pattern point to a home win with goals at both ends.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
