Real Racing ClubvsReal Madrid
Sun, Nov 1 · 7:15 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 37,140 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club | 11% | 9.5% | +1.5 pts | 10.00 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Draw | 15% | 12.7% | +2.3 pts | 7.50 13/2 | 13.3% |
| Real Madrid | 74% | 77.8% | −3.8 pts | 1.22 11/50 | 82.0% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.3%, so this book’s margin is 5.3%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| X2 | 1.06 | 94.1% |
| 12 | 1.10 | 90.9% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 8.00 | 12.5% |
| X | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| 2 | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 9.00 | 11.1% |
| 2 | 1.07 | 93.3% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| No | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.00 | 99.5% |
| Under | 34.00 | 2.9% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.05 | 95.2% |
| Under | 11.00 | 9.1% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| Under | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| Under | 2.50 | 40.0% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Racing Club goals by Real Madrid goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.8 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Racing Club 0 wins · 1 draw · Real Madrid 9 wins.
- Real Madrid4–0Racing Club
- Racing Club0–0Real Madrid
- Racing Club1–3Real Madrid
- Real Madrid6–1Racing Club
- Racing Club0–2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid1–0Racing Club
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- Real MadridWins5
- Real MadridWithout clean sheet4
- Racing ClubMore than 2.5 goals7/9
- Real MadridMore than 2.5 goals8/9
- Real MadridBoth teams scoring8/9
- Real MadridFirst to score4/5
- Racing ClubFirst to concede6/7
- Racing ClubMore than 4.5 cards7/8
When these two meet
- Real MadridNo losses10
- Real MadridFirst to score9/10
Fan poll: both teams to score?
7,575 votes (third-party poll): yes 50%, no 50%.
Outside model notes
Real Racing Club sit 13th on 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses) and welcome a Real Madrid side that are third on 24 points (8 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). The match is played at El Sardinero in Santander. The outside model gives Real Madrid a 74% chance of victory, with 15% for a draw and 11% for a home win, while both teams to score carries a 64% probability.
Racing have taken 4 points from their last 5 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) and conceded heavily in away defeats at Celta Vigo and Barcelona. Their 2-1 home win over Espanyol was their strongest recent display, with 2.27 expected goals and 23 shots. They have now gone 21 matches without a clean sheet.
Real Madrid have won all of their last 5 matches, including a 2-1 win at Barcelona and a 4-1 home victory over RB Leipzig. They have scored in every one of those matches and have gone 4 matches without a clean sheet. Their league record reads 25 goals scored and 10 conceded from 10 matches.
Real Madrid have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, with 1 draw and no wins for Racing. In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won comfortably at home and Racing held them to a 0-0 draw at El Sardinero. Real Madrid have scored first in 9 of the last 10 meetings between the clubs.
Racing have conceded 26 goals, the highest total in the league, and have allowed 32 big chances (league rank 20) and 15.8 opponent shots per game. They compensate with volume defending: 29.5 clearances and 18.5 tackles per game, both among the league's highest. Real Madrid have created 39 big chances (league rank 2) but converted only 38.5% (league rank 15) and have hit the woodwork 10 times, more than any other team.
Yassir Zabiri has 8 goals (league rank 2) from 4.86 expected goals, an overperformance of 3.14. Iñigo Vicente has 3 assists and 30 key passes (league rank 3), and Sergio Canales has averaged a 7.34 rating in his last 5 matches against Real Madrid. Real Madrid are without the suspended Vinícius Júnior and the injured Rodrygo, so Kylian Mbappé (11 goals, league rank 1) and Arda Güler (33 key passes, league rank 1) carry the main creative load, with Yan Diomande in strong recent form (3 goals, 3 assists in his last 5).
Racing average 2.7 yellow cards per game and have gone over 4.5 total cards in each of their last 7 matches, while Real Madrid average 2.1. Racing average 5.1 corners per game and Real Madrid 6.4 (league rank 4), and Racing have gone over 10.5 total corners in 8 of their last 10 matches. Expect a match with regular stoppages and a corner count close to the combined season average of 11.5.
Real Madrid's 5-match winning run and Racing's defensive record (26 goals conceded, 0 clean sheets) support an away win, in line with the model's 74% probability. Racing's home attacking output through Zabiri, combined with Real Madrid's 4-match run without a clean sheet, supports both teams to score at 64%. The model's home win and draw probabilities of 11% and 15% leave little room for a Racing result.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
