Levante UDvsAtlético Madrid
Sat, Oct 31 · 6:00 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 17,340 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 21% | 17.9% | +3.1 pts | 5.25 17/4 | 19.0% |
| Draw | 21% | 20.8% | +0.2 pts | 4.50 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Atlético Madrid | 58% | 61.3% | −3.3 pts | 1.53 53/100 | 65.4% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 106.6%, so this book’s margin is 6.6%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| X2 | 1.17 | 85.7% |
| 12 | 1.18 | 84.6% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| X | 2.60 | 38.5% |
| 2 | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| 2 | 1.22 | 81.8% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| No | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 97.6% |
| Under | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.17 | 85.7% |
| Under | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| Under | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| Under | 1.57 | 63.6% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Levante goals by Atlético Madrid goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Levante 2 wins · 4 draws · Atlético Madrid 4 wins.
- Levante0–0Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid3–1Levante
- Levante0–2Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid0–1Levante
- Levante2–2Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid0–2Levante
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- Atlético MadridNo losses8
- LevanteWithout clean sheet6
- LevanteMore than 2.5 goals5/6
- Atlético MadridLess than 2.5 goals4/5
- LevanteBoth teams scoring6/6
- Atlético MadridFirst to score8/9
- LevanteFirst to concede5/6
- LevanteLess than 10.5 corners6/7
- Atlético MadridLess than 10.5 corners5/7
When these two meet
- Atlético MadridNo losses3
- BothLess than 2.5 goals6/8
Fan poll: both teams to score?
2,868 votes (third-party poll): yes 69%, no 31%.
Outside model notes
Atlético Madrid arrive with the stronger profile: 8 wins from 10 league matches, 8 goals conceded and 5 clean sheets, the most in the division. Levante UD have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 6 matches and face 16 shots per game, the highest figure in the league, which places constant pressure on their defence. Levante UD do create chances and score regularly, so the visitors are likely to win without a comfortable margin.
The outside model gives Atlético Madrid a 58% chance of winning, with the draw and a Levante UD win both at 21%. Both teams to score is rated at 62%. The most likely scorelines are Levante UD 1-2 Atlético Madrid (10.0%), Levante UD 1-1 Atlético Madrid (9.8%) and Levante UD 0-2 Atlético Madrid (8.4%).
Iván Romero is Levante UD's main threat (3 goals, 3.38 expected goals, average rating 7.03), with Jon Ander Olasagasti supporting from midfield (1 goal, 1 assist). Alex Baena drives Atlético Madrid (5 goals, 2 assists, 24 key passes, 4th in the league), Kang-in Lee adds 2 goals and 1 assist, and Dávid Hancko has won 76.7% of his ground duels, the best rate in the league. Marcos Llorente has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 matches against Levante UD, at an average rating of 7.44. Levante UD are without Enzo Bardeli (injured) and Adrián de la Fuente is doubtful (injured), while Johnny Cardoso is out for Atlético Madrid (injured).
The last two meetings produced a 0-0 draw in Valencia in January 2026 and a 3-1 Atlético Madrid win in November 2025. Across the last 5 meetings, Levante UD have 1 win and 2 draws, and Atlético Madrid have 2 wins. Fewer than 3 goals were scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings, and Atlético Madrid are unbeaten in the last 3.
Levante UD have 1 win and 2 draws from their last 4 matches, and both teams scored in each of their last 6 games. They are strong at the end of matches: 7 of their 16 league goals (43.75%) came in the 76-90 minute window, although they conceded 4 goals in the opening 15 minutes. Atlético Madrid are unbeaten in 8 matches and scored first in 8 of their last 9. They also finish strongly, with 8 of their 20 league goals (40%) in the 76-90 window and 5 between the 46th and 60th minute.
Levante UD have scored 16 goals (5th in the league) but conceded 19, and they are 3.01 goals below their expected goals. They have created 21 big chances (8th) with 42.7% average possession (18th). Atlético Madrid have scored 20 and conceded 8, with 5 clean sheets (1st) and the fewest shots faced per game (10.1). Atlético Madrid average 6 corners per game, while Levante UD average 3.4.
Levante UD are 14th with 10 points from 10 matches (2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses) and sit 2 points above the relegation places, so every home point matters. Atlético Madrid are 2nd with 25 points (8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), 3 points behind FC Barcelona and 1 point ahead of Real Madrid, which makes a win important for their title challenge.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
