GetafevsSevilla
Sun, Nov 1 · 5:00 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 4,625 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 31% | 30.4% | +0.6 pts | 3.10 21/10 | 32.3% |
| Draw | 31% | 30.4% | +0.6 pts | 3.10 21/10 | 32.3% |
| Sevilla | 38% | 39.2% | −1.2 pts | 2.40 7/5 | 41.7% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 106.2%, so this book’s margin is 6.2%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| X2 | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| 12 | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| X | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| 2 | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| 2 | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| No | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.11 | 90.0% |
| Under | 6.50 | 15.4% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.53 | 65.2% |
| Under | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Under | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| Under | 1.14 | 87.5% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Getafe goals by Sevilla goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 14.3 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Getafe 3 wins · 1 draw · Sevilla 6 wins.
- Getafe0–1Sevilla
- Sevilla1–2Getafe
- Getafe0–0Sevilla
- Sevilla1–0Getafe
- Getafe0–1Sevilla
- Getafe1–3Sevilla
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- GetafeWithout clean sheet6
- SevillaMore than 2.5 goals5/6
- GetafeBoth teams scoring4/5
- SevillaFirst to score8/9
- GetafeFirst to concede5/6
- GetafeMore than 4.5 cards8/8
- SevillaLess than 4.5 cards5/6
- SevillaLess than 10.5 corners8/10
When these two meet
- BothLess than 2.5 goals4/5
- BothMore than 4.5 cards4/5
- BothLess than 10.5 corners9/10
Fan poll: both teams to score?
848 votes (third-party poll): yes 80%, no 20%.
Outside model notes
Getafe sit 17th in the table with 9 points from 10 matches, while Sevilla are 6th on 17 points. The match is played at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, a venue where Getafe have traditionally been difficult to break down but have won only twice this season. The outside model makes Sevilla favourites (38% win), with the draw and a Getafe win both rated at 31%. Both teams to score is given a 43% chance, which reflects Getafe's very limited attacking output.
Getafe are without a win in 5 matches and without a clean sheet in the same period (0-4 at Athletic Club, 2-5 at home to Lugano, 1-1 against Rayo Vallecano, 1-1 at Universitatea Craiova, 0-3 at Barcelona). They have conceded first in 4 of their last 5 and were losing at half-time in 4 of 5. Sevilla beat Osasuna 2-0 in their most recent match, but that followed a 1-4 defeat at Real Madrid, a 3-3 draw at Levante and 1-3 losses to Aston Villa and Barcelona. Sevilla's matches have produced over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5, with both teams scoring in 4 of 5.
Getafe have scored 5 goals all season (20th in the league) and conceded 15, with 36.6% average possession (20th) and only 8 big chances created (20th). They do convert what they create, scoring with 50% of their big chances (3rd best). Sevilla have scored 16 and conceded 16, with 41.7% possession (19th) and 57.1% big chance conversion (best in the league) from just 14 big chances created (18th). Sevilla lead the league in tackles per game (19.6) and in possessions won in the final third (5.8).
Sevilla have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, with 1 draw and 1 Getafe win. The most recent match ended 0-1 to Sevilla at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in February 2026, and Getafe won 2-1 in Seville in August 2025. Under 2.5 goals has landed in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and Sevilla have scored first in 7 of their last 8 matches.
Getafe are without Christantus Uche through injury, while Mario Martín (red card) and Johan Mojica (accumulated yellow cards) are suspended, which removes two regular starters from the defensive structure. Martín Satriano is their main attacking reference with 2 goals and 1 assist, and he is fouled 2 times per game (5th in the league). Sevilla are missing Miguel Sierra and Marcão, but Youssouf Fofana arrives in strong form (7.42 average rating, 1 goal, 3 assists in his last 5) and Gabriel Suazo has recorded 1.19 expected assists.
The referee has not yet been confirmed. Getafe have the most yellow cards in the league (35, an average of 3.5 per game) and have committed 141 fouls (3rd most), with over 4.5 cards in all 7 of their matches this season. Sevilla average 2.6 yellow cards per game and have stayed under 4.5 cards in 4 of 5, but 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings went over 4.5 cards. Getafe average 4.2 corners and Sevilla 3.4, and under 10.5 corners has landed in 9 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Sevilla's superior conversion rate and Getafe's league-low attacking output (5 goals, 8 big chances created) point towards the away side, which is consistent with the outside model's 38% figure. Getafe's suspensions in defence and their habit of conceding first add weight to that view, though their home record and Sevilla's openness keep the draw relevant at 31%. With both teams to score rated at only 43%, a controlled away win by a single goal margin is the most likely outcome.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
