ElchevsValencia
Sun, Nov 1 · 9:30 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 4,207 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 33% | 41.9% | −8.9 pts | 2.25 5/4 | 44.4% |
| Draw | 27% | 27.7% | −0.7 pts | 3.40 12/5 | 29.4% |
| Valencia | 40% | 30.4% | +9.6 pts | 3.10 21/10 | 32.3% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 106.1%, so this book’s margin is 6.1%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| X2 | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| 12 | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.88 | 34.8% |
| X | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| 2 | 3.60 | 27.8% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| 2 | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| No | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.06 | 94.1% |
| Under | 10.00 | 10.0% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| Under | 3.50 | 28.6% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Under | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| Under | 1.33 | 75.0% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Elche goals by Valencia goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Elche 2 wins · 2 draws · Valencia 6 wins.
- Elche1–0Valencia
- Valencia1–1Elche
- Elche0–2Valencia
- Valencia2–2Elche
- Elche0–1Valencia
- Valencia2–1Elche
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- ElcheNo losses5
- ValenciaNo wins4
- ElcheMore than 4.5 cards6/8
- ValenciaMore than 4.5 cards5/5
- ElcheLess than 10.5 corners6/7
When these two meet
- BothLess than 2.5 goals4/5
- BothMore than 4.5 cards6/8
Fan poll: both teams to score?
762 votes (third-party poll): yes 87%, no 13%.
Outside model notes
Elche sit 15th in the table on 10 points, while Valencia are 19th on 6 points, so this is a meeting between two sides still close to the bottom of the standings. The outside model makes Valencia the slight favourite away from home (away win 40%, home win 33%, draw 27%), and it also gives both teams to score a 57% chance. Elche have home advantage at the Estadio Martínez Valero, but their recent results have come mainly on the road.
Elche are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), including a 3-0 win at Rayo Vallecano and a 3-1 win at Espanyol. Those away performances were built on efficient finishing rather than control: they had 43% possession at Rayo Vallecano and 34% at Espanyol. They have been much less threatening in home league matches, with a 0-0 draw against Celta Vigo in their most recent home fixture.
Valencia have not won in their last 4 matches (2 draws, 2 losses) and have taken only 6 points from 10 league games. Their recent home results were a 1-2 loss to Villarreal, a 0-0 draw with Athletic Club and a 2-3 loss to Real Sociedad, plus a 2-2 draw at Real Racing Club. They create chances but finish poorly: they have 20 big chances created and a conversion rate of 25%, the lowest in the league.
Valencia have scored 7 goals from 10.70 expected goals, while Elche have scored 14 from 12.18. Elche convert 45% of their big chances (5th in the league) and have scored 3 headed goals, the joint-highest total. Valencia have scored no headed goals and have missed 15 big chances. Elche average 50.1% possession and 85.0% pass accuracy, compared with 45.6% and 81.2% for Valencia, who clear the ball 27.1 times per game (3rd most in the league).
Both teams are most active late in matches. Elche have scored 5 of their 14 goals after the 76th minute, and Valencia have conceded 6 of their 17 goals in the same period. Valencia have also conceded 3 goals in each of the 16-30, 46-60 and 76-90 windows, which makes the closing stages the most relevant part of this fixture.
Fernando Niño is Elche's main threat with 6 goals from 4.10 expected goals, but he is doubtful through injury, and Marc Aguado is also out. Germán Valera has 2 goals in his last 5 matches (average rating 7.53) and Gonzalo Villar has been fouled 2.3 times per game (2nd in the league). Luis Rioja has a strong record in this fixture (average rating 7.36, 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 meetings). Valencia are without Harvey Elliott through suspension, while Diego López, Sergi Canós and David Otorbi are injured; Arnaut Danjuma has 0 goals from 1.62 expected goals.
The last 2 meetings produced an Elche 1-0 win and a 1-1 draw, and both were low-scoring despite Valencia creating the better chances. Valencia recorded 2.54 and 1.94 expected goals in those games but scored only 1 goal across the two matches. Under 2.5 goals has landed in 4 of the last 5 meetings between the clubs.
Elche average 2.5 yellow cards per game and have committed 132 fouls (7th most in the league); Valencia average 2.4 yellow cards per game. More than 4.5 cards has been reached in 6 of Elche's last 8 matches and in all 5 of Valencia's last 5. Elche average 4.4 corners per game and Valencia 4.2, and fewer than 10.5 total corners has landed in 6 of Elche's last 7 matches, although the last 2 head-to-head meetings produced 14 corners each.
The model points to a narrow Valencia win (away win 40%), with both teams to score at 57%. Valencia's chance creation and Elche's tendency to concede big chances support goals at both ends, while the head-to-head record and Elche's home form suggest a tight contest. A single-goal margin is the most likely outcome.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
