FC BarcelonavsDeportivo Alavés
Sat, Oct 31 · 1:00 PM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 48,356 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 83% | 86.0% | −3.0 pts | 1.10 1/10 | 90.9% |
| Draw | 11% | 9.5% | +1.5 pts | 10.00 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Alavés | 6% | 4.5% | +1.5 pts | 21.00 20/1 | 4.8% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.7%, so this book’s margin is 5.7%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.02 | 98.5% |
| X2 | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| 12 | 1.06 | 94.1% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| X | 3.75 | 26.7% |
| 2 | 13.00 | 7.7% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.02 | 97.6% |
| 2 | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| No | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.00 | 99.5% |
| Under | 34.00 | 2.9% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.06 | 94.1% |
| Under | 10.00 | 10.0% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.22 | 81.8% |
| Under | 4.33 | 23.1% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 1.57 | 63.6% |
| Under | 2.38 | 42.1% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Barcelona goals by Alavés goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Barcelona 7 wins · 2 draws · Alavés 1 win.
- Alavés1–0Barcelona
- Barcelona3–1Alavés
- Barcelona1–0Alavés
- Alavés0–3Barcelona
- Alavés1–3Barcelona
- Barcelona2–1Alavés
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- AlavésNo wins6
- BarcelonaWithout clean sheet4
- AlavésWithout clean sheet3
- BarcelonaMore than 2.5 goals10/10
- BarcelonaBoth teams scoring8/9
- AlavésBoth teams scoring5/7
- AlavésFirst to concede4/5
- AlavésLess than 4.5 cards4/5
- AlavésLess than 10.5 corners7/7
When these two meet
- BothLess than 4.5 cards7/9
Fan poll: both teams to score?
8,619 votes (third-party poll): yes 57%, no 43%.
Outside model notes
Barcelona are the clear favourites at Spotify Camp Nou. They average 69.3% possession and have created 61 big chances this season, the most in the league, while Alavés defend in a compact block and have allowed the fewest big chances in the division. Alavés are without a win in 6 matches, so the balance of control, chance quality and home advantage points to a Barcelona victory.
The outside model gives Barcelona an 83% chance of winning, with 11% for a draw and 6% for an Alavés win. A 3-0 home win is the most likely scoreline at 11.6%, followed by 2-0 at 11.2% and 4-0 at 9.0%, while both teams to score is rated at 51%.
Lamine Yamal is the main threat (8 goals, 6 assists, 8.23 average rating, 33 key passes and 14 big chances created, all league-leading figures), and Raphinha has 7 goals in his last 5 matches. Pedri sets the tempo in midfield. Barcelona are without the injured Dani Olmo, Andreas Christensen, Eric García, Roony Bardghji and Xavi Espart. For Alavés, Hugo Novoa has been the standout (7.75 average rating in his last 5) and Pablo Ibáñez is fouled 2.1 times per game, the third most in the league; Mikel Rodriguez and Facundo Garcés are injured.
Barcelona have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between the clubs. Alavés won the most recent one 1-0 in May 2026 with 23% possession and 0.72 expected goals to 0.60, while Barcelona won 3-1 in November 2025 with 69% possession and 2.24 expected goals. Fewer than 4.5 cards were shown in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Barcelona have won 4 of their last 5 matches, including 5-2 at Real Betis and 4-1 at Galatasaray, and they have both scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9. Their strongest period is the final 15 minutes, when they have scored 22.5% of their goals. Alavés are without a win in 6 and have conceded first in 4 of their last 5; 42.9% of their goals come after the 76th minute and they have not scored in the opening 15 minutes this season.
Barcelona lead the league with 40 goals scored and have conceded 11, the joint-fifth fewest, but they rank 20th for finishing: they are 5.25 goals below their expected total after missing 35 big chances. They allow only 7.1 opponent shots per game, the best figure in the division. Alavés have scored 14 and conceded 11 with 43% average possession; they lead the league in tackles per game (19.1), rank second in interceptions (10.7) and have allowed only 12 opponent big chances, the fewest in the league.
Barcelona top the table with 27 points from 10 matches (40-11 goal difference), 2 clear of Atlético Madrid, and a win keeps them ahead in the title race. Alavés sit 7th with 12 points from 10 matches (14-11) in a tight group that is separated by a single point from 8th to 10th. They are looking to end their winless run and stay in the top half.
The referee for this match is not confirmed in the available data. Barcelona have the fewest yellow cards in the league (15, 1.5 per game) and Alavés have 17 (1.7 per game), with fewer than 4.5 cards in 4 of Alavés' last 5 matches and in 7 of the last 9 meetings. For corners, Barcelona average 7.2 per game (second most in the league) and Alavés 4.1 (15th), and Alavés have stayed below 10.5 corners in all of their last 7 matches.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
