Tottenham HotspurvsCrystal Palace
Sat, Oct 31 · 10:30 AM PT · Referee Michael Oliver
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 14,271 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 63% | 61.8% | +1.2 pts | 1.53 53/100 | 65.4% |
| Draw | 21% | 21.0% | 0.0 pts | 4.50 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 16% | 17.2% | −1.2 pts | 5.50 9/2 | 18.2% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.8%, so this book’s margin is 5.8%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.14 | 87.5% |
| X2 | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| 12 | 1.18 | 84.6% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| X | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| 2 | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| 2 | 4.33 | 23.1% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| No | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.03 | 97.1% |
| Under | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.17 | 85.7% |
| Under | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.57 | 63.6% |
| Under | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Under | 1.53 | 65.2% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Tottenham goals by Crystal Palace goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Tottenham 6 wins · 0 draws · Crystal Palace 4 wins.
- Tottenham1–3Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace0–1Tottenham
- Tottenham0–2Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace1–0Tottenham
- Tottenham3–1Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace1–2Tottenham
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- TottenhamNo losses3
- TottenhamBoth teams scoring4/5
- Crystal PalaceFirst to concede6/7
- Crystal PalaceLess than 4.5 cards6/7
When these two meet
- BothMore than 10.5 corners6/8
Fan poll: both teams to score?
2,669 votes (third-party poll): yes 84%, no 16%.
Outside model notes
Tottenham Hotspur sit 14th in the table (9 points, 8-10 goal difference) and Crystal Palace are 17th (7 points, 9-19). The match is a London derby at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where the visitors have won on their most recent visit. The outside model makes Tottenham clear favourites (63% home win, 21% draw, 16% away win) and rates both teams to score at 56%. Both clubs are in the bottom half and need points, which points to an open game.
Tottenham are unbeaten in 3 matches: a 2-0 win at Chelsea, a 1-1 draw at Manchester United and a 3-1 win over Coventry City, after earlier defeats to Liverpool and Aston Villa. Both teams scored in 4 of their last 5 matches. Their goals are heavily weighted late: 6 of their 8 league goals have come in the 76th to 90th minute, while 4 of the 10 they have conceded arrived between the 61st and 75th minute.
Palace have no win in 4 (2-2 at Beşiktaş, defeats to Newcastle United, Brighton & Hove Albion and Olympique Lyonnais, plus a 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest before that run). They have failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 matches and have conceded first in all 6 of those games. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of their last 5, which reflects their openness at both ends.
Tottenham control territory (60.9% average possession, ranked 2nd) and lead the league for corners per game (6.5), but their conversion is poor (18.75% of big chances, ranked 18th) and they have committed the second-most fouls in the division (111). Palace have the worst defensive record in the league (19 conceded) yet rank 5th for big chances created (24), with 18 of those missed and 5 woodwork hits. Palace also lead the league for tackles per game (20.75) and rank 2nd for clearances (30.4).
The last 5 meetings read Tottenham 2 wins, Crystal Palace 3, with no draws. Palace won 1-3 at this stadium in March 2026, while Tottenham won 1-0 at Selhurst Park in December 2025. Palace created the better chances in both of those games, including 3 big chances in the most recent one.
Both teams average 1.5 yellow cards per game, and fewer than 4.5 cards were shown in 5 of Palace's last 6 matches, so a low-card game is the base case. Tottenham's corner volume (6.5 per game) against Palace's low output (3.625 per game) supports a healthy total, and more than 10.5 corners were recorded in 6 of the last 8 head-to-head meetings.
Tottenham's possession and corner dominance at home, combined with Palace's poor defensive record and habit of conceding first, points to a home win. Palace carry a real threat through the chances they create, which fits the model's rating for both teams to score. The prediction is a Tottenham win with both teams finding the net.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
