Coventry CityvsSunderland
Sat, Oct 31 · 8:00 AM PT · Referee Simon Hooper
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 5,508 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 32% | 31.1% | +0.9 pts | 3.00 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Draw | 28% | 27.4% | +0.6 pts | 3.40 12/5 | 29.4% |
| Sunderland | 40% | 41.5% | −1.5 pts | 2.25 5/4 | 44.4% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 107.2%, so this book’s margin is 7.2%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| X2 | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| 12 | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 3.60 | 27.8% |
| X | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| 2 | 2.88 | 34.8% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| 2 | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| No | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.05 | 95.2% |
| Under | 11.00 | 9.1% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| Under | 3.50 | 28.6% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Under | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| Under | 1.33 | 75.0% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Coventry goals by Sunderland goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 13.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Coventry 4 wins · 5 draws · Sunderland 1 win.
- Sunderland1–1Coventry
- Coventry1–2Sunderland
- Coventry3–0Sunderland
- Sunderland2–2Coventry
- Sunderland0–3Coventry
- Coventry0–0Sunderland
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- SunderlandNo losses3
- CoventryWithout clean sheet3
- CoventryFirst to concede6/8
- BothLess than 4.5 cards6/7
- CoventryLess than 10.5 corners10/10
- SunderlandLess than 10.5 corners4/5
When these two meet
- SunderlandWithout clean sheet5
- BothMore than 2.5 goals4/5
- BothMore than 4.5 cards6/8
Fan poll: both teams to score?
1,079 votes (third-party poll): yes 87%, no 13%.
Outside model notes
Both clubs sit in the bottom two of the table, with Coventry City 19th on 6 points and Sunderland 20th on 5 points, so the value of a win is high for both. The outside model favours the visitors (away win 40%, home win 32%, draw 28%) and rates both teams to score at 56%. Coventry City play at the Coventry Building Society Arena, where the last meeting between the sides was decided by a single goal.
Coventry City have 2 wins and 3 defeats from their last 5 matches, including a 4-1 win over Newcastle United and a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest, but they lost their most recent home match to Fulham. Sunderland are without a win in 3 and have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5, with a goalless draw against Leeds United and a 1-1 draw at Lech Poznań. Coventry City's results are more volatile, while Sunderland have kept the scores tighter.
Coventry City have scored 6 and conceded 15 (15.5 xG against), with average possession of 37.5% (19th in the league) and only 10 big chances created (20th). Sunderland have also scored 6 but have 22 big chances created (8th) and 11.39 expected goals, so their finishing is the main issue: they have missed 17 big chances and hit the woodwork 6 times, the most in the league. Sunderland also win 53.6% of ground duels (2nd in the league), while Coventry City rely on a deep block: 10.125 interceptions and 29.125 clearances per game, both top 4 in the league.
The last two meetings were both decided by a single goal, with Coventry City winning away and Sunderland winning at the Coventry Building Society Arena. Across the last 5 meetings Coventry City have 2 wins, Sunderland have 1 and 2 were drawn. Matt Grimes has been Coventry City's standout performer in this fixture with an average rating of 7.42, while Daniel Ballard was player of the match in the most recent game.
Coventry City have scored 3 of their 6 goals between minutes 46 and 60 and have conceded 5 of 15 in the final 15 minutes, so late goals against them are a pattern. Sunderland have conceded 5 goals between minutes 46 and 60 and 4 more in the final 15 minutes, and they have scored 2 of their 6 goals between minutes 31 and 45. The period immediately after half-time is the most likely point for the game to change.
Coventry City average 1 yellow card per game, the lowest in the league, and Sunderland average 1.75. Coventry City have stayed under 4.5 cards in 6 of their last 7 matches and Sunderland in 5 of 6, but 6 of the last 8 head-to-head matches went above 4.5 cards, so the fixture history points to a higher card count than the season averages. Coventry City average 3.75 corners per game, Sunderland 4.25, and Coventry City have stayed under 10.5 total corners in 10 of 10 matches.
Sunderland's chance creation (22 big chances, 11.39 expected goals) is clearly stronger than Coventry City's (10 big chances, 7.63 expected goals), and the model's 40% away win probability reflects that. Coventry City's low possession and heavy clearance volume should keep the game close, and the 56% both-teams-to-score figure fits two teams who have each conceded 14 or more goals. The prediction follows the model: a narrow Sunderland win.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
