ChelseavsManchester United
Sat, Oct 31 · 5:30 AM PT · Referee Peter Bankes
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 47,388 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 48% | 52.9% | −4.9 pts | 1.80 4/5 | 55.6% |
| Draw | 27% | 24.4% | +2.6 pts | 3.90 29/10 | 25.6% |
| Man Utd | 25% | 22.7% | +2.3 pts | 4.20 16/5 | 23.8% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.0%, so this book’s margin is 5.0%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.22 | 81.8% |
| X2 | 1.95 | 51.3% |
| 12 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.30 | 43.5% |
| X | 2.40 | 41.7% |
| 2 | 4.33 | 23.1% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.33 | 75.0% |
| 2 | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.57 | 63.6% |
| No | 2.25 | 44.4% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.03 | 97.1% |
| Under | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.17 | 85.7% |
| Under | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| Under | 2.30 | 43.5% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| Under | 1.57 | 63.6% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Chelsea goals by Man Utd goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Chelsea 2 wins · 4 draws · Man Utd 4 wins.
- Chelsea0–1Man Utd
- Man Utd2–1Chelsea
- Chelsea1–0Man Utd
- Man Utd1–1Chelsea
- Chelsea4–3Man Utd
- Man Utd2–1Chelsea
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- Man UtdNo wins8
- Man UtdWithout clean sheet8
- Man UtdBoth teams scoring5/7
- Man UtdLess than 4.5 cards5/7
- Man UtdLess than 10.5 corners5/5
When these two meet
- BothBoth teams scoring8/10
- Man UtdFirst to score5/7
Fan poll: both teams to score?
9,154 votes (third-party poll): yes 83%, no 17%.
Outside model notes
Prediction: a tight draw, although Chelsea are the more likely side to win if a decisive goal arrives. Chelsea’s home chance creation and strong big-chance conversion give them the edge, but Manchester United’s fast breaks and Chelsea’s underperformance against expected goals keep the match close.
The outside model makes Chelsea 1-1 Manchester United the most likely scoreline (12.9%), followed by Chelsea 1-0 Manchester United (9.6%) and Chelsea 2-1 Manchester United (9.6%). It gives Chelsea a 48% win probability, a draw 27%, a Manchester United win 25% and both teams scoring 55%.
Cole Palmer is the standout in this fixture (average rating 7.72 and a regular scorer against United). Jordan Henderson is Chelsea’s in-form player with goals and an assist in his last 5. Ayden Heaven was player of the match in the last meeting and will be important for United’s defence. Chelsea are without Reece James, Emiliano Martínez, João Pedro, Pep Chavarría and Maxence Lacroix, all injured; Manchester United miss Manuel Ugarte and Benjamin Šeško through injury, while Marcus Rashford is doubtful.
The last two meetings both went to Manchester United, including a win at Stamford Bridge. Across the last 5 meetings it is balanced: Chelsea have 2 wins, 1 draw and Manchester United have 2 wins. Both teams have scored in 8 of the last 10 head-to-head matches, and Manchester United have scored first in 5 of the last 7.
Chelsea have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5; they score 41% of league goals in the first 15 minutes and concede 33% in the final 15. Manchester United are without a win in 8 and have 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5; they score 30% in each of the 61-75 and 76-90 periods and concede 31% in the final 15.
Chelsea rank third for goals scored but 17th for goals conceded, and their -6.67 expected goals difference is the 19th-best over/underperformance; they convert 50% of big chances (2nd) and win 54% of ground duels (1st). Manchester United have a +2.79 expected goals difference (4th), average 56.5% possession (6th), rank 2nd for penalty area entries and 1st for interceptions, but have no clean sheets (19th).
Chelsea sit 5th on 13 points and can strengthen their top-five position; Manchester United are 16th on 7 points and need points to move away from the lower half. The match is at Stamford Bridge.
Peter Bankes averages 3.9 yellow cards and 0.16 red cards per game. Both teams average 2 yellow cards per game, so a match total around 4 is reasonable. Chelsea average 5.625 corners and Manchester United 6; Manchester United matches have had less than 10.5 corners in 5 of their last 5, while the last two head-to-heads had 8 and 10 corners.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
