Aston VillavsFulham
Sat, Oct 31 · 1:00 PM PT · Referee Samuel Barrott
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 12,953 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 53% | 49.7% | +3.3 pts | 1.91 91/100 | 52.4% |
| Draw | 25% | 25.3% | −0.3 pts | 3.75 11/4 | 26.7% |
| Fulham | 22% | 25.0% | −3.0 pts | 3.80 14/5 | 26.3% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.3%, so this book’s margin is 5.3%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| X2 | 1.83 | 54.5% |
| 12 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| X | 2.38 | 42.1% |
| 2 | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| 2 | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| No | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.03 | 97.1% |
| Under | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| Under | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| Under | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Under | 1.50 | 66.7% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Aston Villa goals by Fulham goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Aston Villa 8 wins · 0 draws · Fulham 2 wins.
- Fulham1–0Aston Villa
- Aston Villa3–1Fulham
- Aston Villa1–0Fulham
- Fulham1–3Aston Villa
- Fulham1–2Aston Villa
- Aston Villa3–1Fulham
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- Aston VillaWithout clean sheet3
- Aston VillaMore than 2.5 goals9/10
- FulhamLess than 2.5 goals4/5
- Aston VillaFirst to score4/5
- FulhamFirst to score5/6
- Aston VillaFirst half winner4/5
- FulhamLess than 4.5 cards8/10
When these two meet
- BothMore than 4.5 cards5/6
- BothLess than 10.5 corners7/8
Fan poll: both teams to score?
2,071 votes (third-party poll): yes 78%, no 22%.
Outside model notes
Aston Villa have the stronger case at Villa Park. They have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between the teams, and Fulham have converted only 11.8% of their big chances this season, the lowest rate in the league. Villa's clearest weakness is the closing stage of matches, where they have conceded 4 of their 12 league goals, so the match should stay close.
The outside model gives Aston Villa a 53% chance of winning, a draw 25% and a Fulham win 22%, with both teams to score rated at 57%. The most likely scorelines are Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham (11.9%), Aston Villa 2-1 Fulham (9.9%) and Aston Villa 1-0 Fulham (9.1%).
Nicolas Jackson has 5 goals in his last 5 matches and averages a the outside model rating of 8.08, while Johan Manzambi has 3 goals and 2 assists over the same run. Fulham's João Gomes has 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 matches against Villa (7.34 average rating), and Alex Iwobi arrives with a rating of 7.74. Villa are without Amadou Onana, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Matteo Ruggeri, all injured. Fulham lose Ryan Sessegnon to a suspension after a red card, while Emile Smith Rowe is doubtful with injury.
Aston Villa have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, Fulham have won 1 and none have been drawn. Fulham won the most recent match 1-0 at Craven Cottage, while Villa won 3-1 at Villa Park in the meeting before that. The fixture has produced more than 4.5 cards in 5 of the last 6 meetings and fewer than 10.5 corners in 7 of the last 8.
Villa have won 4 of their last 5 matches in all competitions, including a win over Manchester City, but they lost 3-0 at Bournemouth in their most recent league match. They score most often between minutes 61-75 and 76-90, and have conceded 4 of their 12 league goals in the final 15 minutes. Fulham have won 2 of their last 5 with a clean sheet in each, and have lost 2 and drawn 1. They score most often between minutes 31-45 and 46-60, while 4 of the 10 goals they have conceded came in the final 15 minutes.
Fulham average 58% possession (rank 5), 112.25 successful final third passes per game (rank 5) and 6.125 corners per game (rank 2), but they have converted only 11.8% of their 17 big chances, the worst rate in the league. Villa average 46% possession and have created fewer big chances (14), yet they convert 42.9% of them (rank 4). Villa also make 19 tackles per game (rank 2), while Fulham have kept 3 clean sheets (rank 4) and outperformed their expected goals by 3.48 (rank 3).
Aston Villa are 9th on 11 points from 8 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Fulham are 15th on 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses). A home win keeps Villa close to the top six, while Fulham can move level on points with the hosts by winning at Villa Park.
Samuel Barrott averages 3.8 yellow cards and 0.05 red cards per game. Villa average 2.25 yellow cards per game and Fulham 2.0, while the teams produced more than 4.5 cards in 5 of their last 6 meetings. Villa average 3.25 corners per game (rank 19) and Fulham 6.125 (rank 2), and the last 8 meetings have produced fewer than 10.5 corners 7 times.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
