Borussia M'gladbachvsSC Paderborn 07
Sat, Oct 31 · 7:30 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 4,305 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M'gladbach | 43% | 48.6% | −5.6 pts | 1.95 19/20 | 51.3% |
| Draw | 25% | 24.3% | +0.7 pts | 3.90 29/10 | 25.6% |
| Paderborn | 32% | 27.1% | +4.9 pts | 3.50 5/2 | 28.6% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.5%, so this book’s margin is 5.5%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.29 | 77.8% |
| X2 | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| 12 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.40 | 41.7% |
| X | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| 2 | 3.60 | 27.8% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| 2 | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| No | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 97.6% |
| Under | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.14 | 87.5% |
| Under | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Under | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Under | 1.67 | 60.0% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| M'gladbach goals by Paderborn goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
M'gladbach 5 wins · 0 draws · Paderborn 1 win.
- Paderborn3–1M'gladbach
- M'gladbach2–0Paderborn
- Paderborn1–3M'gladbach
- M'gladbach2–0Paderborn
- M'gladbach2–0Paderborn
- Paderborn1–2M'gladbach
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- M'gladbachMore than 2.5 goals8/10
- PaderbornLess than 2.5 goals4/5
- M'gladbachBoth teams scoring4/5
- PaderbornLess than 4.5 cards7/7
When these two meet
- PaderbornWithout clean sheet6
- M'gladbachFirst to score5/6
Fan poll: both teams to score?
780 votes (third-party poll): yes 86%, no 14%.
Outside model notes
My prediction is a draw, with both teams taking a point. Gladbach are the favourite in the model at 43%, but they have conceded 22 goals in 7 league matches and are yet to keep a clean sheet, so a controlled home performance is not well supported by their numbers. Paderborn have conceded only 9 goals and defend their penalty area well, but they create little and convert few chances. That combination points to a close match where the first goal does not settle the result.
The outside model gives Gladbach a 43% chance of victory, the draw 25% and Paderborn 32%, and it rates both teams to score at 63%. The most likely scorelines are Gladbach 1-1 Paderborn (11.8%), Gladbach 2-1 Paderborn (9.1%) and Gladbach 1-2 Paderborn (7.8%). The spread between all three outcomes is narrow, which reflects how little separates the sides.
Robin Hack has been the main attacking reference for Gladbach in recent meetings with Paderborn (1 goal, 1 assist, average rating 7.2), and Joe Scally is their form player (2 goals, 2 assists, average rating 7.38 across the last 5 matches). Paderborn's standout is goalkeeper Nahuel Noll (average rating 7.7 in the last 5), whose shot-stopping has protected a strong defensive record. Gladbach are without Hugo Bolin, Jan Leszczyński and Enzo Leopold, all injured. Paderborn are without Oliver Batista Meier, injured, and Gabriel Vidović is a doubt, also injured.
The last 2 meetings were both friendlies: Paderborn won 3-1 in July 2021 and Gladbach won 2-0 in August 2020. Across the last 5 meetings Gladbach have 4 wins to Paderborn's 1, and Gladbach have scored first in 5 of the last 6. Paderborn have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 6 matches against Gladbach.
Gladbach have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5 matches and have scored in every one of them, but they concede late: 36% of their goals conceded this season have come in the 76th to 90th minute. Paderborn also have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5, with both wins coming without conceding. They score most often in the 16th to 30th minute (50% of their goals) and concede most in the closing 15 minutes (33%).
Gladbach have scored 11 goals from 11.6 expected goals and concede heavily at 22 conceded, the worst defensive record in the league (0 clean sheets). They are the most fouled-offending side in the league (103 fouls, 22 yellow cards), but they convert 47% of their big chances, the third-best rate, and have scored 3 headed goals, also third-best. Paderborn have scored 6 goals from 7.15 expected goals and conceded only 9, the fourth-best record, with 2 clean sheets. They lead the league in interceptions (13.7 per game) and rank second in clearances (35 per game), and they generate 36.9 penalty area entries per game, fourth-most, but convert only 15.4% of their big chances.
Gladbach are 18th and bottom of the table with 3 points from 7 matches (1 win, 0 draws, 6 losses) and need a result to avoid a wider gap. Paderborn are 13th with 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses) and can move level with several mid-table sides with a win. The gap between the two is 5 points, and Gladbach have the chance to close it at home.
The referee appointment is not confirmed in the available data. The card tendencies of both teams are clear: Gladbach average 3.14 yellow cards per game and have committed 103 fouls, the most in the league, while Paderborn average 1.29 yellow cards and have stayed under 4.5 cards in 7 of 7 matches. On corners, Gladbach average 5.86 per game and Paderborn 4.57 per game.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
