SV Werder BremenvsTSG Hoffenheim
Sat, Oct 31 · 7:30 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 4,776 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bremen | 39% | 33.8% | +5.2 pts | 2.80 9/5 | 35.7% |
| Draw | 25% | 24.9% | +0.1 pts | 3.80 14/5 | 26.3% |
| Hoffenheim | 36% | 41.2% | −5.2 pts | 2.30 13/10 | 43.5% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.5%, so this book’s margin is 5.5%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.57 | 63.6% |
| X2 | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| 12 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 3.10 | 32.3% |
| X | 2.60 | 38.5% |
| 2 | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| 2 | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| No | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 98.0% |
| Under | 19.00 | 5.3% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.11 | 90.0% |
| Under | 6.50 | 15.4% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Under | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Under | 1.80 | 55.6% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Bremen goals by Hoffenheim goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Bremen 2 wins · 0 draws · Hoffenheim 8 wins.
- Hoffenheim1–0Bremen
- Bremen0–2Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim3–0Bremen
- Hoffenheim1–0Bremen
- Bremen1–3Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim3–4Bremen
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- BremenWithout clean sheet10
- BremenMore than 2.5 goals6/6
- HoffenheimMore than 2.5 goals6/7
- BremenBoth teams scoring9/10
- HoffenheimBoth teams scoring5/7
- HoffenheimFirst to score4/5
- BremenFirst to concede6/7
- BremenFirst half loser5/7
- HoffenheimMore than 4.5 cards4/5
- BremenLess than 4.5 cards5/5
When these two meet
- HoffenheimWins5
- HoffenheimNo goals conceded4
Fan poll: both teams to score?
1,062 votes (third-party poll): yes 89%, no 11%.
Outside model notes
Prediction: a narrow draw. The model gives Werder a slight home advantage, but Hoffenheim's recent scoring form and the high chance of both teams scoring keep the match very balanced.
The outside model makes 1-1 the most likely scoreline at 11.2%, followed by 2-1 at 8.5% and 1-2 at 8.2%. It gives Werder a 39% win chance, the draw 25% and Hoffenheim 36%, with a 67% chance of both teams scoring.
Niclas Füllkrug is Werder's main threat with 8 goals in his last 5 matches, and Marco Grüll has 4 assists in the same period. Mitchell Weiser has 3 assists in his last 5 appearances against Hoffenheim. Werder are without Salim Musah and Paul Erevbenagie through injury, while Olivier Deman is doubtful. Hoffenheim miss Patrick Wimmer, Albian Hajdari, Nathan De Cat and Valentin Gendrey through injury, Alexander Prass is suspended after a second yellow card, and Vladimír Coufal is doubtful.
Hoffenheim have won the last 5 meetings and kept clean sheets in 4. They scored first in 8 of 9, while Werder have gone 14 head-to-head matches without a clean sheet. The recent meetings show Hoffenheim scoring first regularly and defending their lead.
Werder's last 5 matches brought 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats; they have no clean sheet in 10 and both teams scored in 9 of 10. They score 73% of league goals after 60 minutes and concede 29% in 16-30. Hoffenheim's last 5 brought 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat; they scored first in 4 of 5 and both teams scored in 5 of 7. They score 29% in 46-60 and concede 29% in both 61-75 and 76-90.
Werder rank 7th for goals scored and 12th for goals conceded; they have no clean sheets, rank 1st for ground duels won and 2nd for tackles, and convert 40.9% of big chances. Hoffenheim rank 5th for possession, 5th for big chances created and 1st for fast breaks, but convert only 28% of big chances and have hit the woodwork 6 times.
Werder are 6th on 12 points from 7 matches (3 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat). Hoffenheim are 10th on 9 points (3 wins, 0 draws, 4 defeats). A Werder win would strengthen their top-six position; Hoffenheim can move closer to the upper half with a win.
The referee is not named in the data. Werder average 1.14 yellow cards per game and have stayed under 4.5 cards in 5 of 5; Hoffenheim average 2.14 and have gone over 4.5 cards in 4 of 5. Head-to-head meetings have produced over 4.5 cards in 8 of 10 and under 10.5 corners in 6 of 8.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
