Eintracht FrankfurtvsHamburger SV
Sun, Nov 1 · 8:30 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 2,646 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt | 63% | 60.1% | +2.9 pts | 1.57 57/100 | 63.7% |
| Draw | 20% | 21.0% | −1.0 pts | 4.50 7/2 | 22.2% |
| HSV | 17% | 18.9% | −1.9 pts | 5.00 4/1 | 20.0% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.9%, so this book’s margin is 5.9%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.17 | 85.7% |
| X2 | 2.30 | 43.5% |
| 12 | 1.18 | 84.6% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| X | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| 2 | 4.75 | 21.1% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| 2 | 3.75 | 26.7% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| No | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 98.5% |
| Under | 21.00 | 4.8% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.13 | 88.9% |
| Under | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| Under | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Under | 1.80 | 55.6% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Frankfurt goals by HSV goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Frankfurt 5 wins · 4 draws · HSV 1 win.
- HSV1–3Frankfurt
- Frankfurt1–2HSV
- HSV1–1Frankfurt
- Frankfurt3–0HSV
- HSV1–2Frankfurt
- Frankfurt0–0HSV
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- FrankfurtMore than 2.5 goals8/10
- FrankfurtFirst to score6/8
- FrankfurtLess than 4.5 cards8/8
- HSVLess than 4.5 cards5/5
- FrankfurtLess than 10.5 corners6/7
- HSVLess than 10.5 corners5/6
When these two meet
- FrankfurtWithout clean sheet3
- HSVWithout clean sheet5
- BothMore than 2.5 goals4/5
- BothBoth teams scoring4/5
- BothLess than 4.5 cards5/6
Fan poll: both teams to score?
551 votes (third-party poll): yes 89%, no 11%.
Outside model notes
Eintracht Frankfurt sit 14th in the Bundesliga (8 points, 10-17 goal difference) and host Hamburger SV, who are 11th (9 points, 6-16). Only 1 point separates the sides, so a win would lift either club clear of the lower part of the table. The outside model makes Frankfurt clear favourites (63% home win, 20% draw, 17% away win) and rates both teams to score at 58%. Frankfurt won the most recent meeting between the clubs 3-1 away from home.
Frankfurt have won 3 of their last 5 matches in all competitions, including a 1-0 home win over 1. FC Köln and a 4-0 cup win over Eintracht Braunschweig. The two defeats were heavy in nature: 6-0 at RB Leipzig and 1-0 at Borussia Dortmund, where they managed 8 shots and 0.85 expected goals. Their attacking output is reasonable (10 goals, 22 big chances created, 40.9% conversion), but 17 goals conceded is the second-worst defensive record in the league.
Hamburger SV have won 3 of their last 5, beating VfB Stuttgart 1-0, TSG Hoffenheim 3-2 and FC København 2-0 before losing their last two matches 1-0 at SC Paderborn 07 and 3-1 at home to Frankfurt. They have scored just 6 league goals (rank 15) and hold only 39.3% possession on average, the lowest in the division. Their scoring is heavily weighted to the closing stages: 50% of their league goals have come between minutes 76 and 90.
Frankfurt have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 meetings. Both teams scored in 4 of those 5 matches and there were more than 2.5 goals in 4 of 5. Frankfurt have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 3 meetings, and Hamburger SV in their last 5.
Frankfurt carry the stronger underlying numbers: 12.02 expected goals against 10 scored, 22 big chances created (rank 7) and 52.8% aerial duels won (rank 6). Hamburger SV have 6.90 expected goals against 6 scored, just 12 big chances created (rank 16) and 41.5% aerial duels won (rank 17), which is a clear weakness against Frankfurt's height and set-piece threat. Frankfurt also record 29.6 penalty area entries per game against Hamburger SV's 21.6.
Hamburger SV are without the suspended defender Mario Vušković, while midfielders Nicolai Remberg, Fábio Vieira and Bilal Nadir and forward Yussuf Poulsen are all injured. Frankfurt have no listed absentees, which leaves them with the deeper squad for this fixture.
No referee has been confirmed for this match. Frankfurt average 2.29 yellow cards per game and Hamburger SV 1.57, and Hamburger SV commit the second-most fouls in the league (101). Frankfurt have stayed under 4.5 cards in 8 of their last 8 matches and Hamburger SV in 5 of 5, while the head-to-head has produced under 4.5 cards in 5 of 6. Corners are also low: Frankfurt average 4.71 per game and Hamburger SV 3.71, with under 10.5 corners in 6 of 7 Frankfurt matches and 5 of 6 Hamburger SV matches.
The model's 63% home win probability, combined with Hamburg's selection problems, their low possession share and their poor aerial numbers, points to a Frankfurt victory at the Deutsche Bank Park. Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings and in 4 of Frankfurt's last 5, which supports the 58% figure for both teams to score. A moderate card and corner count fits the trend in both teams' recent matches.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
