FC Schalke 04vsRB Leipzig
Sat, Oct 31 · 7:30 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 3,729 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke | 21% | 24.4% | −3.4 pts | 3.90 29/10 | 25.6% |
| Draw | 25% | 23.7% | +1.3 pts | 4.00 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Leipzig | 54% | 51.9% | +2.1 pts | 1.83 83/100 | 54.6% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.3%, so this book’s margin is 5.3%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| X2 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| 12 | 1.22 | 81.8% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| X | 2.60 | 38.5% |
| 2 | 2.30 | 43.5% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| 2 | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| No | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 98.5% |
| Under | 21.00 | 4.8% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.13 | 88.9% |
| Under | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| Under | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| Under | 1.73 | 57.9% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Schalke goals by Leipzig goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Schalke 2 wins · 1 draw · Leipzig 7 wins.
- Leipzig4–2Schalke
- Schalke1–6Leipzig
- Schalke0–3Leipzig
- Leipzig4–0Schalke
- Schalke0–5Leipzig
- Leipzig1–3Schalke
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- SchalkeNo wins4
- SchalkeNo goals scored3
- LeipzigMore than 2.5 goals5/6
- SchalkeLess than 2.5 goals4/5
- SchalkeLess than 4.5 cards8/10
- LeipzigLess than 4.5 cards5/6
- SchalkeLess than 10.5 corners4/5
When these two meet
- LeipzigWins5
- SchalkeWithout clean sheet7
- BothMore than 2.5 goals6/6
- LeipzigFirst to score5/5
- LeipzigFirst half winner5/5
Fan poll: both teams to score?
647 votes (third-party poll): yes 85%, no 15%.
Outside model notes
FC Schalke 04 host RB Leipzig at the VELTINS-Arena. Schalke sit 16th with 6 points from 7 matches, while Leipzig are 5th with 12 points. The outside model probabilities: home win 21%, draw 25%, away win 54%; both teams to score chance 62%. The context favours Leipzig, but Schalke's low-block approach and home support keep the home side in the match.
Schalke are without a win in their last 3 matches and have scored only 4 league goals this season, the lowest in the division. They drew with 1. FC Köln and lost at home to 1. FSV Mainz 05 in recent league fixtures. Leipzig have won 3 of their last 5 in all competitions, including a home victory over SV 07 Elversberg, but they also lost heavily to Real Madrid and FC Bayern München. Leipzig have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
Schalke have averaged 39.7% possession and 69.6% pass accuracy, both among the lowest in the league. They lead the league in tackles per game (22.7) and clearances per game (39.4), but they have allowed 31 opponent big chances, the most in the division. Leipzig have scored 20 goals, the second-most, and converted 58.3% of their big chances, the best rate. Leipzig have kept 4 clean sheets and average 53.0% possession.
Leipzig have won the last 5 head-to-head meetings. They have scored first in all 5 and led at half-time in all 5. Schalke have failed to keep a clean sheet in the last 7 meetings.
Schalke goalkeeper Loris Karius has an average the outside model rating of 7.82 in his last 5 matches and has helped the side to 3 clean sheets. Leipzig midfielder Brajan Gruda has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5, with an average rating of 7.88. Goalkeeper Maarten Vandevoordt has an average rating of 7.53.
Referee details are not available. Both teams have low card numbers: Schalke have 8 yellow cards and Leipzig have 7 this season. Schalke have stayed below 4.5 cards in 8 of their last 9 matches, and Leipzig in 5 of their last 6. Schalke average 3.3 corners per game, the lowest in the league, while Leipzig average 5.3. Head-to-head meetings have stayed below 10.5 corners in all of the last 5. A combined total of 3 yellow cards and 9 corners is a reasonable projection.
Leipzig are clear favourites according to the outside model (away win 54%). Schalke's defensive discipline can keep the match competitive, but their limited attack makes a home win unlikely (21%). Leipzig's scoring form and head-to-head record point to an away victory, with both teams likely to score (62%).
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
