FC AugsburgvsSC Freiburg
Sat, Oct 31 · 7:30 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 5,399 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 32% | 30.7% | +1.3 pts | 3.10 21/10 | 32.3% |
| Draw | 27% | 25.0% | +2.0 pts | 3.80 14/5 | 26.3% |
| Freiburg | 41% | 44.3% | −3.3 pts | 2.15 23/20 | 46.5% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.1%, so this book’s margin is 5.1%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| X2 | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| 12 | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| X | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| 2 | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 2.25 | 44.4% |
| 2 | 1.57 | 63.6% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| No | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.02 | 97.6% |
| Under | 17.00 | 5.9% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.14 | 87.5% |
| Under | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| Under | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 2.10 | 47.6% |
| Under | 1.73 | 57.9% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Augsburg goals by Freiburg goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Augsburg 2 wins · 2 draws · Freiburg 6 wins.
- Augsburg2–2Freiburg
- Freiburg1–3Augsburg
- Augsburg0–0Freiburg
- Freiburg3–1Augsburg
- Augsburg2–1Freiburg
- Freiburg2–0Augsburg
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- BothWithout clean sheet8
- AugsburgMore than 2.5 goals8/9
- FreiburgMore than 2.5 goals9/9
- AugsburgBoth teams scoring8/8
- FreiburgBoth teams scoring7/8
- AugsburgFirst to score5/6
- FreiburgFirst to score5/7
- FreiburgLess than 4.5 cards6/8
- FreiburgLess than 10.5 corners7/9
When these two meet
- AugsburgNo losses3
- BothMore than 2.5 goals8/10
- BothBoth teams scoring4/5
Fan poll: both teams to score?
1,185 votes (third-party poll): yes 93%, no 7%.
Outside model notes
SC Freiburg are narrow favourites. They have conceded 9 goals this season (rank 4) and allow only 10.3 shots per game, the second fewest in the league. FC Augsburg score regularly (17 goals, rank 3) but give up 19.7 shots per game, the second most in the division, and are without two defenders. Freiburg convert 50% of their big chances, the second best rate in the league, which should be enough in a tight match.
The outside model gives SC Freiburg a 41% chance of victory, a draw 27% and an FC Augsburg win 32%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12.8%), 1-2 (9.1%) and 2-1 (7.8%). Both teams to score carries a 60% chance.
Philipp Lienhart has 3 goals in 5 starts against FC Augsburg (average rating 7.54), the strongest record of any player in this fixture. Finn Dahmen (7.68) and Hennes Behrens (7.64, 4 assists) have been Augsburg's best performers over their last 5 matches. FC Augsburg are without Abdulai Juma Bah (suspension after a red card) and Calvin Brackelmann (injury), while Philipp Treu is doubtful and Florent Muslija is injured for SC Freiburg.
FC Augsburg have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 meetings, and are unbeaten in 3. The most recent meeting in Augsburg finished level after the visitors came back from two goals down. More than 2.5 goals landed in 8 of the last 10 meetings and both teams scored in 4 of the last 5.
Neither team have kept a clean sheet in their last 8 matches; both teams scored in all 8 of FC Augsburg's recent games and in 7 of SC Freiburg's last 8. Augsburg score most often in the 46-60 and 76-90 periods (5 goals in each) and concede most in the final 15 minutes (5). Freiburg's scoring is also concentrated late (5 goals in 76-90), while they concede most between minutes 16-30 and 76-90 (3 in each).
FC Augsburg have scored 17 goals (rank 3) and conceded 13 (rank 9), with 21 big chances created and a conversion rate of 38%. SC Freiburg have scored 16 (rank 4) and conceded 9 (rank 4), with 4 headed goals (rank 1) and 55.4% of aerial duels won (rank 3). Both teams are below their expected goals: Augsburg by 1.71, Freiburg by 3.34.
SC Freiburg sit 3rd on 13 points (4 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats), 4 points behind the leaders, and a win keeps them in contact with the top two. FC Augsburg are 9th on 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats), and a win would take them level on points with the visitors.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
