Bayer 04 LeverkusenvsVfB Stuttgart
Sat, Oct 31 · 7:30 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 8,553 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverkusen | 63% | 54.3% | +8.7 pts | 1.75 3/4 | 57.1% |
| Draw | 20% | 21.9% | −1.9 pts | 4.33 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Stuttgart | 17% | 23.8% | −6.8 pts | 4.00 3/1 | 25.0% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.2%, so this book’s margin is 5.2%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.22 | 81.8% |
| X2 | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| 12 | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| X | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| 2 | 3.75 | 26.7% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| 2 | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.33 | 75.0% |
| No | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.01 | 99.3% |
| Under | 29.00 | 3.4% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.08 | 92.3% |
| Under | 8.00 | 12.5% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.30 | 76.9% |
| Under | 3.50 | 28.6% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Under | 2.00 | 50.0% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Leverkusen goals by Stuttgart goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Leverkusen 4 wins · 4 draws · Stuttgart 2 wins.
- Stuttgart3–1Leverkusen
- Leverkusen1–4Stuttgart
- Stuttgart3–4Leverkusen
- Leverkusen0–0Stuttgart
- Leverkusen6–5Stuttgart
- Leverkusen2–2Stuttgart
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- LeverkusenMore than 2.5 goals5/6
- StuttgartFirst to score7/8
- StuttgartLess than 4.5 cards7/8
When these two meet
- BothWithout clean sheet3
- BothMore than 2.5 goals6/7
- BothBoth teams scoring8/9
- BothMore than 4.5 cards5/6
- BothMore than 10.5 corners4/5
Fan poll: both teams to score?
1,888 votes (third-party poll): yes 92%, no 8%.
Outside model notes
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are the clear pick at the BayArena. They have created 27 big chances (2nd in the league) and average 57.9% possession (2nd), while VfB Stuttgart have converted only 15.4% of their big chances (17th). Stuttgart also travel without Angelo Stiller and Josha Vagnoman, which weakens both their build-up and their right side. Leverkusen's advantage in chance creation and territory should decide the match.
The outside model gives Bayer 04 Leverkusen a 63% chance of winning, with 20% for a draw and 17% for VfB Stuttgart. The most likely scorelines are Leverkusen 2-1 Stuttgart (9.8%), Leverkusen 1-1 Stuttgart (8.9%) and Leverkusen 2-0 Stuttgart (8.1%), with a 65% chance that both teams score.
Patrik Schick has 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 matches, and Ibrahim Maza has added 2 goals and 1 assist over the same period. Aleix García has 2 assists and dictates the tempo in midfield. Leverkusen are without Martin Terrier and Moussa Diaby, both injured. For Stuttgart, Maximilian Mittelstädt (8.06 average rating) and Jeff Chabot (7.85) have been their most consistent performers, while Jamie Leweling has 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 matches against Leverkusen and was player of the match in the most recent meeting. Angelo Stiller, Josha Vagnoman and Leo Sauer are all injured.
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 2 meetings, 3-1 at home in May and 4-1 at the BayArena in January. Across the last 5 meetings it is 2 Stuttgart wins, 2 draws and 1 Leverkusen win. Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings, so the recent pattern points to an open match.
Leverkusen have won 4 of their last 5 in all competitions, including a 5-2 win over 1. FC Nürnberg, with the only defeat a 0-3 loss at TSG Hoffenheim. Stuttgart have won 2 of their last 5, beating SC Paderborn 07 and ŠK Slovan Bratislava, but lost 2-3 to Borussia M'gladbach and 0-1 at Hamburger SV. Both teams do much of their scoring late: Leverkusen have scored 25% of their goals and conceded 33% in the 76-90 minute period, while Stuttgart have scored 30% in the 46-60 period and 30% in the 76-90 period, and conceded 30.8% in the final 15 minutes.
Leverkusen have 16 goals scored and 12 conceded, with 14.19 expected goals, so they are slightly below their expected output (rank 15 for overperformance). They also miss 17 big chances and convert 37% of them (11th). Stuttgart have 10 goals from 13.86 expected goals, the best overperformance in the league, but their 15.4% big chance conversion rate is 17th. Stuttgart also allow 17.9 opponent shots per game, one of the highest figures in the division. Both teams generate similar corner volume: Leverkusen 6.7 per game (2nd), Stuttgart 6.6 per game (3rd).
Bayer 04 Leverkusen sit 4th on 13 points from 7 matches (16-12 goal difference), level with SC Freiburg and 4 points behind leaders FC Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund. VfB Stuttgart are 15th on 6 points from 7 matches (10-13), with 2 wins and 5 defeats, and are only 3 points clear of bottom club Borussia M'gladbach. Leverkusen are chasing the top group, while Stuttgart need points to move away from the lower places.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
