FC Bayern MünchenvsBorussia Dortmund
Sat, Oct 31 · 10:30 AM PT
Who wins
Market is the 1X2 price with the bookmaker’s margin spread out proportionally. Fan poll: 24,963 votes (third-party poll).
Outside model vs the market · 1X2
| Side | Outside model | No-vig | Edge | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern | 75% | 71.0% | +4.0 pts | 1.33 33/100 | 75.2% |
| Draw | 14% | 16.4% | −2.4 pts | 5.75 19/4 | 17.4% |
| Dortmund | 11% | 12.6% | −1.6 pts | 7.50 13/2 | 13.3% |
Implied = 1 ÷ decimal odds; the three add up to 105.9%, so this book’s margin is 5.9%. No-vig removes it. Edge = outside model minus no-vig. A positive edge means the outside model rates that side higher than the market does — a disagreement, not a guaranteed value bet.
More markets (8)
| Pick | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | ||
| 1X | 1.10 | 90.9% |
| X2 | 3.25 | 30.8% |
| 12 | 1.14 | 87.5% |
| 1st half | ||
| 1 | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| X | 3.10 | 32.3% |
| 2 | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| Draw no bet | ||
| 1 | 1.11 | 90.0% |
| 2 | 6.50 | 15.4% |
| Both teams to score | ||
| Yes | 1.44 | 69.2% |
| No | 2.63 | 38.1% |
| Match goals 0.5 | ||
| Over | 1.00 | 99.5% |
| Under | 34.00 | 2.9% |
| Match goals 1.5 | ||
| Over | 1.07 | 93.3% |
| Under | 9.00 | 11.1% |
| Match goals 2.5 | ||
| Over | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| Under | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Match goals 3.5 | ||
| Over | 1.62 | 61.9% |
| Under | 2.30 | 43.5% |
Outside model projection
Exact score, %
| Bayern goals by Dortmund goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Outlined: the outside model’s single most likely score. Shading scales to it.
Head to head
Bayern 6 wins · 3 draws · Dortmund 1 win.
- Dortmund1–2Bayern
- Dortmund2–3Bayern
- Bayern2–1Dortmund
- Bayern2–2Dortmund
- Dortmund1–1Bayern
- Bayern0–2Dortmund
Form, oldest first
Streaks
- DortmundWins3
- BayernNo losses18
- DortmundNo losses4
- BayernWithout clean sheet6
- BayernMore than 2.5 goals9/9
- BayernBoth teams scoring6/6
- DortmundFirst to score7/9
- BayernLess than 4.5 cards8/10
- DortmundLess than 4.5 cards5/6
- BayernMore than 10.5 corners6/8
When these two meet
- BayernWins3
- BayernNo losses5
Fan poll: both teams to score?
5,420 votes (third-party poll): yes 93%, no 7%.
Outside model notes
FC Bayern München are the selection to take the three points. They are unbeaten in 18 matches and lead the league for goals scored (25), big chances created (42) and possession (67.1%). Borussia Dortmund have conceded only 4 goals, but their attacking output is clearly lower, with 21 big chances created (rank 10) against Bayern's 42.
The outside model gives a home win 75%, a draw 14% and an away win 11%. The most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.4%), while both teams to score is rated at 63%.
Michael Olise (4 goals, 3 assists, average rating 8.74 in his last 5 matches) and Harry Kane (4 goals, 3 assists) lead Bayern's attack, with Joshua Kimmich (average rating 7.62 across his last 5 meetings with Dortmund) dictating midfield. Bayern are without Luis Díaz and Bara Sapoko Ndiaye (both injured), and Manuel Neuer is doubtful. Dortmund depend on Nico Schlotterbeck (average rating 7.82) and Waldemar Anton (7.56); Giannis Konstantelias and Kauã Prates are injured, while Konstantinos Karetsas is doubtful.
Bayern are unbeaten in the last 5 meetings, with 3 wins and 2 draws. The last 2, both played at Dortmund, finished 2-1 and 3-2 to Bayern, and both teams scored in all 5 of those matches.
Bayern have 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, scoring 20 goals, but they have kept no clean sheet in 6 games. They score most often in the periods 46-60 (6 goals) and 76-90 (5 goals). Dortmund have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5 (6 scored, 4 conceded), and half of their league goals have come in the final 15 minutes.
Bayern lead the league for goals scored (25), possession (67.1%), big chances created (42), corners (9.14 per game) and fewest yellow cards (6). Dortmund have the strongest defensive record (4 conceded, 5 clean sheets) but rank 9th for goals scored (12).
Both teams have 17 points from 7 matches (5 wins, 2 draws) and are separated only by goal difference: Bayern +19, Dortmund +8. The winner moves clear at the top of the table.
No referee appointment is listed in the available data. Bayern average 0.86 yellow cards per game, the lowest in the league, against Dortmund's 2.14. Bayern average 9.14 corners per game (rank 1) and Dortmund 6 (rank 5), and both teams have stayed under 4.5 cards in most of their recent matches.
AI figures come from an independent third-party model, not PropEdge’s.
